Congressman Perriello fooled many VA5 voters during the last election. Although he was able to ride a wave created by the perfect storm and only pulled off a questionable 727 vote victory, he is slick and not to be underestimated. Starting next month, little Tommy and his friends will most likely own the news media in VA5. It is my understanding he is going to hit the town hall circuit again, and will get his made-for-TV face all over the news. This will begin to eat away some of the very impressive lead Robert Hurt enjoys at the moment.
When considering the size of Tommy’s war chest, the open checkbook being provided by the Obama machine, George Soros, SEIU, and an untold numbers of leftist organizations, the GOP and the Hurt campaign need to be very careful in their calculations. They might want to review some of the early polls from the last contest showing Virgil Goode with comfortable margins as well. However, we all know that the GOP suffers with a type of congenital political memory defect, coupled with an overinflated ego that typically leads them to being overly confident is such situations as they find themselves now. They have proved this repeatedly.
NOTE to GOP: Stop gloating and GO TO WORK!
Robert Hurt and his team deserve congratulations for their primary victory. They earned it by playing the political game better than anyone else. You obviously get what you pay for. They hired the best, and routed the rookies. But, there is a tiny little problem that exists that many in the GOP refuse to see. The problem is that during the GOP primary campaign the rules of the game changed a bit. Most of the old guard GOP was replaced and now a new group of either Tea Party members and supporters hold key positions in the VA5 GOP leadership. And they do not see things the same way as the old guard who set up the old rules.
That’s good. We needed some new blood in the local GOP – just as do local GOP infrastructures all across the country. In VA5, it is almost a fresh start, and with the leadership of Bill Stanley, I anticipate some very positive changes. I have seen many already. I am very grateful for him and his willingness to reach out to Tea Party conservatives, most of whom are disgruntled with the old GOP, disgusted with politicians and politics in general, and/or scared out of their minds watching both parties destroy the Republic. Bill Stanley’s outreach has made a huge difference to many of the newly awakened conservatives in VA5.
Simply put: the latest polls show that Robert Hurt is in a commanding lead at this moment in the campaign. Frankly, if these poll numbers hold, Robert may feel that he does not need the energetic support from the Tea Parties in VA5. After all, the pundits say the Tea Parties are useless, ineffective, lack message, lack structure, lack leadership, lack the ability to really make any difference in the race at all. There are many in the Virginia GOP, and the national GOP, who agree with that assessment. And they are betting their political lives – and our country – on that assumption.
So, as Tea Party patriots who don’t really trust, or feel welcomed by the RPV, the Hurt campaign, and the remnants of the old guard; what do we do? I want to encourage all the Tea Party patriots of VA5 to consider this before you schedule more vacation time, or decide to just let someone else worry about it; the GOP is not known for making accurate calculations. Pure and simple. They tend to have no backbone, to put it bluntly, and they simply believe that they can fool the public into supporting them because they are “not the liberal democrat.” So, in football terms (it is that time of the year), they will be satisfied to let the air out of the ball and try to sit on their “lead.”
Big mistake.
Sure, there is going to be some of the anti-socialist backlash about Perriello/Pelosi/Obama. But to depend on people to be angry and scared enough to vote against the “other guy” is not a good plan. It has never been a good plan, and it is not one now. To rely on that is a risk that this nation can not afford to take. So, all you disappointed Tea Party patriots please cancel your vacations until after November. You are needed to to awaken and teach people about the dangers coming our way if the Perriello/Pelosi/Obama machine is not defeated in VA5 and in every congressional district in the Republic.
Reference this comment about the latest SurveyUSA poll (it’s not Rassmussen, but it’s what we have to work with at the moment):
“A new poll suggests that Republican challenger Robert Hurt holds a 23-point advantage over 5th District incumbent Tom Perriello, D-5th…. SurveyUSA contacted 800 registered voters in the 5th District. Of the 591 who said they were likely to vote, 42 percent identified themselves as Republican and 27 percent Democrat…..SurveyUSA wrote that even if the survey were adjusted to include an even number of Democrats and Republicans, Hurt would have led by 11 points….. Among the groups that most strongly support Perriello are those who have unfavorable opinions of the tea-party movement, according to the poll.” (They identified that Perriello supporters have unfavorable opinions of the Tea Party movement . . . go figure. Did they actually pay someone to ask that question?)
The sad fact is that many astride the GOP have a similar unfavorable opinion. But for different reasons. The establishment GOP has a hard spot with us, because we cannot be controlled in our opinions and actions. They would really like to have our passion and energy, but they seem to want it on demand, and expect us to support them just because they are NOT “the other guy.” The incomprehensible part of this is the arrogance they tend to display in even having such expectations.
This poll, and all the pundits, are gleefully spreading the word you, as a Tea Party activist, are insignificant. Don’t listen to that garbage! They have an agenda. Those on the establishment GOP side want you to just adopt them as your chosen leader and do as you are told. We can all understand their desires, but why don’t they consider yours? They want your adoration, time, and money, and can’t seem to realize that you, the individual voter, owe them nothing. They owe you, and for years have not delivered – not with John McCain, not with Mitch “I-Won’t-Campaign-Against-My-Buddy- Harry” McConnell, not with Michael “Dede-Scozzafava-is-my-kinda-gal” Steele.
On the other side, the big government socialist types supporting Tommy/Nancy/Barack are frightened senseless. These enemies to freedom will say and do anything to divide us, demoralize us, and destroy us. Sometimes those claiming to be our friends do the same thing behind our backs. But, the Obamunists do it right to our face. So, as Gen. Chesty Puller said, “They got us surrounded. Good, now we can shoot in any direction.”
We certainly have a dilemma, don’t we? The Tea Parties in VA5 have been attacked and ridiculed by the GOP for not “endorsing” Robert Hurt (for the record, and to his great credit Robert has never said a word about it publicly). This has had an effect on many in our membership, but it has turned a surprisingly few against the leadership across the district. Has Robert Hurt, or the establishment GOP endorsed the Tea Party? I believe they support much of what we stand for, but not enough to offer an endorsement. Sometimes we just have to agree to disagree.
Then there is independent candidate, Jeffrey Clark. Jeff is a great guy. He is a Tea Party member, and he is seen by many in our little ‘insignificant’ band to be the salve to ease the pain of consciously choosing to vote principles over pragmatism. This, I suppose, is the age old problem with politics anyway. I predict, like other indy candidates he is going to draw some votes. But like others in the past he will be viewed as a “spoiler.” Jeff has a political future if he chooses. People like and trust him, and he does “endorse” the Tea Party movement. But, history tells us, indy candidates only win when the perfect storm aligns with them. The forecast is simply not in Jeff’s favor at this time.
Now let us look at what lies ahead: In 102 days we are going to the polls. Let’s look at the ticking clock, the math, some facts, and upcoming events:
Today, Robert Hurt holds a 23 point lead in the SurveyUSA poll. 52% of the GOP voters in the primary voted for someone other than Robert. 8% of eligible voters turned out for the primary. This was a HUGE turnout, most primary races will pull 3-4%, if lucky. The candidates that arguably seemed to have to most Tea Party affection were Jim McKelvey and Mike McPadden, totaling roughly 34% between them.
Right now, Robert is being trounced by Perriello’s fund raising. Robert has less than $200,000, as of June, on hand compared to almost $2,000,000 for lil’ Tommy. Ten to 1 is not good news for Robert, no matter how you try to spin it. Next month Tommy will be in the district doing his town-hall traveling dance and slight-of-hand act, and he will dominate the VA5 media for a month. The usual band of liberal thug organizations will start dumping money into the district to stir up the base, and begin the propaganda campaign, while the Pelosi/Soros/Obama gang begins finding miraculously massive sums of money from all the global anti-Liberty crowd.
All this, coupled with the fact that some of the more gullible are just now coming to the realization that there is actually a problem, or an election, will be driven by massive media to think cute l’il Tommy is all about taking care of them with magical Obama money. This will eat away a Robert Hurt’s comfortable lead. Then Jeff Clark is going to pull 3-4%, and with SEIU, the next rendition of ACORN, and non-stop political commercials smearing the GOP and YOU as mean old, racist, greedy, conservatives who only care about power, money, and not following the god-like dictates and visions of Barack Obama, and his little clone Tommy Perriello.
In short, the GOP and Robert are going to have one heck of a mess. Then if they manage to win it, they will take all the credit for it, and if they lose they will blame the Tea Party and the sour grapes crowd for not getting behind Robert Hurt.
Let me be clear . . . My Tea Party cohorts, we have ourselves a conundrum (as do other Tea Party activists nationwide): we can either get back in the game and help the Republican win (after extracting some in-stone guarantees from him, and make them understand their first term is probationary!). Or, we can sit on the sidelines – and lose whether he wins or not. It is a Defining Moment. Let’s make a decision.
This is the view from inside the Tea Pot . . .
Mark Lloyd
Chairman, Lynchburg Tea Party
Kelley:
You sound as though you are trying prop up Mr. Hurt, while I am trying to warn and prepare him for the certain avalanche that will hit him if he is not MUCH MORE prepared than he was at the Lynchburg Tea Party meeting this past Thursday.
Again, I saw Hurt Thusrday, August 5. Then I saw Perriello saturday, August 7. The difference in preparedness, speaking ability, and depth & breadth of knowldge lean heavily to Perriello’s side.
Hurt needs to do some reading. And he needs to do it now. His current level of knowledge and catch-phrase speechifying will not sway the fence-sitting, undecided average voter.
Hurt does not need apologists. He needs folks who will shoot straight with him and who will challenge him to grow in knowledge and ability – and fast.
Kelley have you been to Chase City lately ?
I hear Hurt is not attending the candidate forum in Charlottesville today (the one I mentioned earlier).
Stephen:
Do you agree with my assessment of the Perriello Town Hall in Fluvanna County and of what Hurt will need to do to stand toe-to-toe with Perriello in debate?
Perriello states the $26.1 billion bailout of teachers’ union is fully funded by cutting other programs such as food stamps. He touted his upcoming vote at the Fluvanna Town Hall and he voted for the bill Tuesday.
What he has not told us is that the supposed cuts to foodstamps will not take place until 2014, while the payout to the unions occurs now. Before 2014, of course, the Congress can restore the money to the food stamp program, which is exectly what they will do.
Please, someone pass this information to the Hurt campaign so he can slam Perriello at their debate.
Someone needs to research the “437 teacher’s jobs saved” claim from Perriello. I will bet it will be enlightening to know where this number came from.
morprfctgovt:
I agree with the bulk of your post, and if Hurt prepared as you suggest, he would certainly do well in a debate. Hopefully he is reading.
A couple of additional thoughts…
1. Perriello is slick, and slippery as an eel. This will play against him. I see Hurt as a more genuine and sincere fellow.
2. Hurt is not going to become a master debator/orator in a few months.
3. The debate (and the election itself) will be won or lost based on a simple combination of common sense and likeability. If Hurt makes a convicing argument that his ideas are better for America and that Perriello’s are harmful (should not be hard, for it is common sense) and if he can come across as the more likeable character (he just needs to be himself), he will win the middle, and that will decide it.
4. Perriello has many policy/position weaknesses, whereas Hurt does not. I think Hurt just needs to focus on 3-5 key Perriello weak points (e.g., healthcare, government spending, cap and trade, …), and keep driving them home.
5. “…the GOP really messed this up by jumping in to support Hurt when a far more articulate and knowledgeable candidate existed”.
I disagree with this viewpoint. The GOP didn’t elect Hurt. The voters of the 5th district did, and by a wide margin. Although I supported McPadden, I conceed now that Hurt was the strongest candidate, with the best chance of beating Perriello. I wish the people of the 5th were ready for a more liberty-minded constitutional conservative, but apparently they are not there yet (hopefully this will change with education and the right candidate in the future).
Stephen:
Thank you for responding.
You are exactly correct Perriello is an eel. But to the less-informed he does not come across that way. You and I know he is an eel because we can see below the veneer. I think Perriello does a better job than Obama in his “eeliness” because he is able to interact with folks with whom he disagrees without coming across as pompous. I spoke with him briefly after the town hall and found him likeable. But I realize this “likeability” is the same as calling Obama likeable, as many who oppose his policies have. A few minutes does not give one opportunity to truly make a good judgement about a person. Heck, the Bible even states SATAN will come as an angel of light. But, “like” it or not, likeability is good in campaigns. He is likeable, but I cannot stand him – because I know what he supports and where he wants to take us.
Hurt does not need to become a master debater. Not many can. But he needs to be armed with facts. This does not necessarily require an exceedingly high ability to debate.
Unfortunately, no candidate will be able to give the one-on-one time with all voters. Hurt’s likeability may come across when speaking with one or a few, but I find him somewhat aloof when he speaks to a large crowd. Perriello comes across as personable both before a large crowd and one-on-one. hence, likeability will not win the day for him. Armed with facts to present to an INFORMED ELECTORATE will win the day for Hurt. Ignorance is what got Perriello in office in the first place, as well the Anointed One.
Perriello does have many policy weaknesses, and Hurt will be able to exploit the weaknesses if he is very well-informed, which was the purpose for my e-mail (to disclose Perriello’s arguments and weaknesses).
Re Hurt winning the primary: My point is the GOP leadership, which from the blogs I conclude many conservatives loathe, got behind Hurt early on for the sole reason he is one of theirs and seemed to be the most electable. I contend there was no consideration of policy positions of Hurt any more than there was policy considerations in the GOP support of Dede Scozzafava in NY 23rd special election.
I vehemently disagree with you Hurt is the best out of the seven in the GOP primary field. That is all water under the bridge now, so I will not delve further into that matter.
By the way, were you that guy with the “O’vomitus” sticker on your shirt at the Perriello Town Hall in Fluvanna County?
morprfctgovt:
You are right about Perriello and seeing beyond the veneer. I agree that at a superficial level he is very likeable.
I was not the guy with the Ovomit sticker. I was the guy, near the front (on the left when facing front), with the young guy (my son), who asked Perriello if he thought there was any limits on what the government can do under the commerce clause.
The monthly deficit for July 2010 under the Democrat Congress and administration was $165,000,000,000.00.
That would be ONE HUNDRED SIXTY FIVE THOUSAND MILLION dollars, in July 2010 alone. That would be five thousand, five hundred million dollars every day, or two hundred twenty nine million, one hundred sixty six thousand, six hundred sixty six dollars every hour (24-hour period); or three million eight hundred nineteen thousand, four hundred fourty four dollars each minute.
Each minute of every day last month, the Democrat Congress and White House spent $3,819,444 more than what the government took in last month.
And Tommy says the $26.1 billion bailout of teacher’s unions is “fully paid for”. What the hell is he talking about?
Tommy says Medicare is fully solvent for another twelve years. Under what cost projections and rate of growth does he make these predictions? He may try to pass it off to the CBO, but he is claiming the statistic himself, so it is his. Projected economic growth may allow a such a prediction, but we all know the numbers entered will give the result, such that I can enter any number I choose to get the desired result.
Oh, but Tommy thinks we are too dumb to know or figuire these things for ourselves.
You are too stupid, 5th District.
Speaking of stupid.
One of the troubling things I witnessed at the Fluvanna County town hall last Saturday was a question from the audience. A fifty-or sixty-something medical doctor (medical doctor, now) stood to ask a question. The doctor informed the audience and Tommy that he has teen-aged children and wanted advice from Tommy, the same unmarried and without children Tommy, how to get “the younger generation” interested and involved in the political process.
Do you not realize the absurdity of this? But do you not also realize what this tells us about the idiotic, liberal left? This doctor, who seemed really sincere and appeared to be a nice fellow, asked a thirty-five year old unmarried man HOW TO RAISE CHILDREN!! The All-Wise and All-Knowing, the Member of Dear Leader’s Coalition, knows all things (obviously, he is our representative)so the Kind Doctor sought Tommy’s advice about a topic that obviously Sir Tommy could not comment upon with any real-world knowledge. IT WAS THESE SAME TYPE PEOPLE/SHEEPLE WHO ELECTED OBAMA IN THE FIRST PLACE. They voted to entrust the running of the mightiest and most complex government in the world to a person with no real-world experience running anything other than a campaign. Hell, the scum bum was not even in the U.S. Senate long enough to find the bathrooms before he was out on the campaign trail running for president.
And now, this same fool who voted for inexperienced Obama now asks inexperienced Perriello how to raise children.
All the fellow had to do was look around to the man in the back who brought his wife and four wee ones so that daddy would have a chance to ask Tommy how, with all the taxes being raised by the Democrats, he would be able to keep his small business running. Or the doctor could have looked directly across the aisle at Stephen, who was there WITH his teenage son, and ask Stephen, “How, my friend, do you get your young man interested and keep him interested in the political process?”
But, no, he looks to His Majesty Mr. Perrilosi for the answer to which Perriello has no clue.
This shows you the gullibility of the kind who support the Nanny State. Even a ded-blamed doctor cannot bring himself to believe he can get the answer from any source but the government. The good doctor, (a doctor!), is himself a suckling at Nanny’s teet. And not just for health care money, no. He wants advice from Nanny on how to raise his kids!
And what of Tommy? Is he wise enough to say to Dr. Gullible: “You know, Doc, I am unmarried and have never had to face the kinds of issues and decisions your question raises. I just do not have the answers you need. But, Dr. Credulous, you ought to look around this room and see the folks who are here WITH their youngsters and teenagers and ask them. They would know. You see, Dr. Simpleton, government just doesn’t have all the answers. Most of the time the answers can be found with your neighbors who have the real-world experience.”
No, Tommy did not say this to the Sap. You see, this would push Dr. Suscepti away from dependence on government to dependence on his neighbors, which would result in the forging of relationships independent of government, and may even cause Dr. DimWit to awaken from his stooper to realize the example and legacy is and is leaving for his kids.
Which reminds me. Hurt has, how many, three kids? Which of these two do you really think has the proper concern for our nation’s future?
Sorry for the poor grammer.
At times when I am writing and thinking about these things my heart starts pounding and the blood, as Beck says, starts shooting out of my eyes, such that my sight becomes blurred – but not too blurred to discern a fool and a hubristic, officious Pelosi push-button demonstrating in public the hidden thought processes leading to the demise of our Republic.
I will bet the good doctor, if he took his head out of the Democrat sewer long enough, could find plenty of like-minded sucklings to help him draft a Declaration of Dependence, and I am sure Perriello, Pelosi, and Bambi – I mean Obama – would GLADLY SIGN IT FOR HIM!
Interesting article at Washington Examiner:
http://www.printthis.clickability.com/pt/cpt?action=cpt&title=Hugh+Hewitt%3A+Clip+and+save+until+November+2+%7C+Washington+Examiner&expire=&urlID=433685992&fb=Y&url=http%3A%2F%2Fwww.washingtonexaminer.com%2Fopinion%2Fcolumns%2FClip-and-save-until-November-2-488904-100739549.html&partnerID=370834&cid=100739549