One of the great problems with Perriello staying in office (there are many) is the problem of redistricting. Some of you may have heard of the term gerrymandering. Basically after a census there is a process whereby the district is redrawn to favor whoever is in power at the time. I don’t know all the ins and outs but in almost never works out to favor the Republic. (notice I didn’t say “Republicans”) Every time this happens we further slice up the Constitution. We further destroy the nation God ordained that the founders helped to form. One of my great concerns in 2008 was the absolute power that Obama would have if elected because I knew that they Democrats would have all 3 branches of government. I voted against Obama by pushing the button for McCain. I held my nose and did everything I could not to throw up as I was walking out. The results of the 2008 election were a result of the failures of leadership at the GOP. It was this same failure that twisted arms that got us a Primary and led to the “Remember Appomattox” cry. It was this same failure that has us in the SAME position as we were in 2 years ago when we had to hold our nose. It was Tucker Watkins and his establishment goons that got us to this day. Despite our best efforts there were just too many candidates to take on the “machine” of fiefdom politics. While we can count replacing 11 unit chairs and the chairman as a win, we are left with a lingering bloody defeat.
Recently on Facebook Tucker Watkins said the following in response to another person:
You have no idea how redistricting was done ten years ago in Virginia and will likely be done this year. First the House of Delegates does theirs, the Senate theirs and the congressmen decide almost all of the congressional redistricting. Just look at ten years ago. Speaker Wilkins’s team went to maximize the number of GOP seats and were … See Moreable to have 19 new GOP delegates in the following election. The Senate was strictly incumbent protection with lines redrawn to protect those already in office. Best example, southwest Virginia where Democrat counties and GOP counties were traded between Wampler and Puckett to make both safer. Emily Couric’s district,later Creigh Deed’s was the same even though she then was very ill and would not serve another term. It was protection time.
Neither house by tradition messes with the other houses redistricting.
Now to the congressional seats. The three northern Virginia congressmen, Davis,Wolfe and Moran, got together and made all of the districts safer for themselves. Most of the other congressmen met and did the same, with no regard to anything but improving each seat.
“”In 2011 when the census numbers come in, if Perriello is in the seat, the 5th can say goodbye to solid GOP areas like the rest of Bedford which will go into the 6th and we will get Emporia and Greensville and the rest of Brunswick counties, places Forbes would love to let go. That would just be a start. The district will be 5- 10 points more democratic and you will be guaranteeing the reelection of Perriello or his like for at least 10 more years. You would be making two GOP congressmen very happy and that would cement the deal. To believe otherwise would be to ignore history,tradition and the desires of all the congressmen. If Hurt is in the seat, it will be very different and if you are unhappy with him at that point you will have a chance to beat him in the nomination process. So if you want Tommy or a like person in the seat for the next twelve years, continue down the path you are on.” ~ Tucker Watkins Former 5th District GOP Chair
So we have
Option A: Take a principled stand; Vote for Jeff Clark and see Perriello return to D.C.
Option B: Be a good “party voter” and support an establishment candidate that will do whatever the party tells him and MAYBE send Perriello home.
I’m not sure what I’m going to do. I do know that I don’t like the outcome either way. Thanks Tucker.
This is the best post you have ever done.
Redistricting is an impt issue & one that you are smart to highlight.
the people in the western part of the 5th might not care about this (from a federal perspective) because they might go in the 6th. And Bob Goodlatte is the greatest. Perhaps Lunenburg will go in the 4th & have Randy Forbes who is also wonderful. But I fear for the “mid” portion of the 5th who could remain with Perriello if he is allowed to be re-elected. And he will continue to wreck havoc on our country.
Let’s defeat Perriello & keep Southside together if we can.
Kelley you are using alot of if’s and might’s.This is exactly what I told you this would happen. Hurt won and now he can’t get everyone on the same page.As far as the redistricting goes am I wrong that McDonnell can veto it if he doesn’t like the way it is sent to him ?
how partisan does McD want to be? he’ll seek the best compromise he can get. and those of us in the country don’t have the juice that those in NOVA & Richmond & Tidewater do. we don’t have the numbers of legislators that these urban areas have.
I might get Louise Lucas in some grand trade that benefits a big Republican from Va Beach. oh horrors.
Kelley Obama MIGHT get re-elected in 2012.IF we had gotten off of our asses in 2008 Goode would be in office now.IF my candidate had won the primary he would have the Lynchburg Tea party support.IF Hurt hadn’t won it wouldn’t be a three way race now.If’s and might’s don’t get much done.
Tucker, like always, is full of ^$%#. Why does anyone even listen to him anymore?
He is pulling numbers out of his big fat @#$%. Five to ten more points Democratic? No @#$% way. I’ve TRIED to draw a 5th District that is substantially more Democratic and even with the black precincts from Forbes’s district there’s just not enough to make the district that much more Democratic. Bedford, Franklin, and Campbell are just way too large to be offset without growing elsewhere around the district into areas that lean Republican. You can’t do it!
Tucker, YOU LIE!
The best I’ve managed to do is take away Bedford and Franklin and expand into Brunswick, Greensville, Emporia . . but the district is still too small so I had to add Nottoway and Dinwiddie. And it’s still too small! So I added Louisa, Orange and Madison. And the result? A district that is two points more Democratic! Would Perriello be a little bit safer? Perhaps. But he’s still be in a very swing district that could easily vote against him.
I challenge Tucker or anyone else to show me a redistricting that makes the 5th five to ten points more Democratic.
NAS, I worked the 4thCD for awhile. Dinwiddie Brunswick (bless their hearts) & Greensville/Emporia would be horrible additions to the 5th. These areas will only help a Democrat. As to the point spread: you’ve looked at the #s recently, so you have a better idea. But let’s not give Perriello or any Dem any advantage.
I say let’s beat him now. why let him vote against our country any longer? what did he say “if you don’t tie our hands, we will keep stealing from you?”
Kelley almost everyone agrees Perriello isn’t the rep we need for the 5th.Hell you can’t even get him on the phone I have tried many times.I have left countless messages for him to call me I still haven’t heard from him yet.When Virgil Goode was in office I could get him on the phone without any problem.With the help of Tucker Watkins Virgil lost.When McCain won the primary I said then we had lost the race and now we have Hurt unless something major happens Hurt will lose also.Kelley face the facts Hurt can’t win unless he has the support of everyone and this won’t happen if Hurt doesn’t do what he couldn’t do in the primary.He has to convince everyone he is not a RINO.Tucker has done everything he could to destroy the 5th district Republican party.
To Tucker Watkins (if he’s reading):
Thank you for the confirmation of our concerns about the behind-the-scenes horse-trading between establishment Democrats and Republicans covering each other’s back. And thank you for confirmation of your complicity, or did we hear a loud protest from YOU as these shenanigans were going on?
Toward the end of your FaceBook post, you state, “So if you want Tommy or a like person in the seat for the next twelve years, continue down the path you are on.” Contrary, Comrade Chairman, this is the path YOU put this District on. You refused to do the right thing so your boy could win, you jammed this damned primary down our throats, and then you chide the rest of us for not going along with YOUR game plan. The situation in the 5th District is your creation. This is your mess. I am not sure how further commentary from you in any way helps the cause.
Notandysere is absolutely right, particularly when you consider that the 9th has to grow substantially, and will probably consume Roanoke as well as Henry County and Martinsville. The fact is there just aren’t that many dark or even light blue counties with any significant population.
Further, Tucker says that if we have a problem with Hurt we can primary him. UNLIKELY. Unlike other states, Virginia doesn’t have runoffs, so situations like what happened to Bob Inglis in S.C. is really unlikely. Further, as the District’s Republican leader, Hurt would get to rig the game in whatever way he sees fit (like Tucker did for him this year.) The only way a primary would work would be from an extremely wealthy outside candidate (like a McKelvey) that was willing to devote at least a million to winning to the primary (something none of the conservative candidates were willing/able to do). If Hurt wins, it’s his seat until he wants his next promotion, and Tucker’s full of it if he pretends a primary is a likely or even remotely possible scenario.
beat Perriello now before he doles out more porkulus & makes more friends across the district. He is vulnerable this year. this year.
Kelley I was really hoping to get a candidate we could ALL get excited about and everyone would work hard for.Hurt doesn’t excite many people.We really needed a candidate we could vote for not just a candidate that isn’t Perriello.If we have had a primary we could have saved every county ALOT of money and the Democrat wouldn’t have a ton of info to use against Hurt (see Blue Virginia).Having a primary would have let the candidate focus on the general election and we would ALL be on the same page.
Chris,
Don’t forget that as the incumbent Hurt will have the choice of a convention or a primary. Virginia gives the incumbent the ability to determine when and how they will be challenged!!! How absurd is that!
NAS can we change that ? If so Hurt could be forced to stay conservative.
It seems to me there is only one issue to focus on right now and that is defeating Tom Perriello. Hurt was not my candidate in the primary (I voted for McKelvey) but he is the candidate now and no matter what his voting record in the past, it is no where as bad as Perriello’s in the present. Sour grapes and division in the Republican party is just what the Democrats want. We must, must put differences aside and support Robert Hurt in November. Changing Congress in November is the last hope for our country.
Right now it doesn’t matter if there was a primary or a convention. That is over and done with. What Tucker Watkins did or didn’t do in the past doesn’t matter now. That is over and done with. And I am suspicious of anyone who will run as a third party candidate because he will take votes away from Hurt and ensure Perriello’s re-election. If he truly cared about Virginia and our country, why would he want Perriello re-elected.
Please everyone, think about this seriously. Stew for a couple of weeks but then let’s all just show a united front and elect Hurt. We can resume nitpicking after the election
As a postscript – if some of the candidates for the primary had dropped out like they should have, perhaps Robert Hurt would not have won. We will never know. But it seems to me that once it was clear they had no chance of winning they should have dropped out and put their support behind one of the 2 or 3 front runners. But instead they let their egos get in the way.
This really is a mess. If you consider the fact that Hurt’s 47.8% win was from only 7.97% of the voters, it shows no real strength for Hurt. What about the other 52.2% of the voters that may vote in November? The last poll done showed 48% of likely R voters as still being undecided less than a month before the primary. That’s astounding, and again, not a sure sign of strength for Hurt. He may have been the leader in the poll, but, only with 25% support. 75% non-support is significant.
The choices are depressing. Forget any principles, dig out the old 2008 nose plugs, and vote for someone you do not like or support, or, stay home, or, vote for Jeff Clark, and stand by your principles.
The way I see it is, since it’s now a 3 way race, the R’s are at a disadvantage anyway. I don’t know much about Jeff Clark, but, if he can get his campaign into high gear, hit the road hard and heavy, get his message out loud and clear, it’s possible to make Hurt the spoiler. It’s going to all be up to Clark. I heard him on the radio, and liked his communication abilities, albeit it was a short radio piece. I like his issues on his website. I believe he can be a forceful speaker, and debater if he can gain alot of support to back him. Success breeds success. At this point there is nothing to lose.
Does anyone have any knowledge of Jeff Clark to share?
I wanted to also add that now it will be between only 2 people, not seven. From reading comments from all of the 5th district blogs, I can see a major push for principles over party.
There is something that needs to be brought to the forefront. I had heard long ago that Republicans only wake up not long before an election, and then promptly go back to sleep right after an election. This really does seem to be the case with the 5th district Republican committee.
Here is the website for the 5th district Republican committee-
http://fifthdistrictgop.com
From what I can see, it was born in December 2009. Other than listing the 7 candidates, I don’t think it has been touched ever since. I thought Tucker Watkins was gone
Here is the Democrat 5th district committee website-
http://www.5thcddems.org/
I don’t know when it was born, but, I would be willing to bet it was before Perriello was elected. It seems to be a very active, and constantly updated source for the 5th district ACORN, oh sorry, I meant Dems. Today while the Republicans are having a rally to try to gain support for the R candidate, Perriello is in town, kicking off his campaign. I wonder how many Dems they have gotten to go door to door to try to sign up new voters?
There are some people that I know of (in other states)that are trying to get Republicans (I use the term Republican because that is the party that needs changing, the Progressives are hopeless) involved in their own districts by becoming precinct committeemen. The info that I have read is starkly depressing, as at any given time, only maybe 20% of the possible delegate positions are filled. You have to work within the party in order to get the conservative candidates you want. Problem seems to be that those GOP members (sounds like Tucker Watkins types) don’t want to give up their control of party politics, and their chosen candidates. I will post more info on that project that is having great success, at least in Utah and Arizona.
sandy, your point is well taken. However, and this is anecdotal only, many people say “just let me know who you nominate to run against Perriello ’cause I want to vote for them”.
. To even suggest that RH will not poll close/above 50% in November based exclusively on the primary numbers is short-sighted.
We can flip this district.
Kelly- Those that say “just let me know who you nominate, so I can vote for them” is why we have candidates like RH. At this point there is a 3 candidate race. If you vote for Hurt or Clark, it “can” be a big win for Perriello. There is no question at all that they will split the vote. If the goal is/was to get Perriello out of Washington, a good start would have been for those that consistently polled low to get the heck out of the race. In hindsight, for educational purposes only, those that endorsed, thinking they were kingmakers, long before all the candidates were in, or known, need a trip to the woodshed. That’s not only Morton’s early endorsers, it includes the NRCC, and the NRC as well. Doesn’t that remind you of the O’s admin choosing the candidates they wanted, like the Sestak debacle? That seems to be why most of those that had little support stayed in. Oh well, spilled milk and all that.
Kelly, no matter what words you use, what positives you post about Hurt, or what spin you are trying to do to get your guy elected, it’s not enough to get a very unpopular candidate elected. As I’ve said above, those that polled low in all the “unscientific” polls that were done, if they really cared about the district, and getting Perriello gone, Hurt should have been among those that dropped out. It’s those early endorsers problem again. Do you really believe that the NRCC or the RNC is going to spend major dollars now to try to get an unpopular candidate elected, that is by no means a shoe in? Perriello was once seen as one of the 5 most vulnerable house incumbents in 2010. I would be willing to say that that will be changed to at least leaning Democrat at this point. I wish you would have been open minded enough to consider the ramifications, which were clear for anyone to see, rather than to put all your eggs in one basket. Your support of Hurt has been almost cult like. And, the saddest part of that, is that you have been mostly alone in that love affair, so to speak.
sandy, those that say “let me know who you nominate” are those who care about their country but are not as fascinated with the process as many of us are.
I am not in Sen Hurt’s senate district. Obviously he enjoys great support there. Why is it unreasonable to think that his favorable rating there can’t extend over the entire district?
Yes, I am a big supporter of Sen. Hurt’s. and will remain so until (& beyond) he defeats Perriello.
Kelly, Sorry but they didn’t “Care about their country” because they sat home and didn’t vote. If we only have one duty left to the republic it is our duty to vote and 92% of the voters shirked that responsibility on June 8th. They are worthless! we couldn’t count on them then and I don’t know if we can count on them in November.
Simply put, a vote for Clark is a vote for Perriello. As I said before, I question the motives of someone running as a third candidate right now because it can only help Perriello. He can’t possibly win. Why would anyone want to do that if they care about what is happening to the country right now. For me there are only 2 reasons – he is a democrat plant or his ego is so big he thinks it’s more important for him to have his say than to change the direction of the country.
You can’t really judge turnout in November with the primary turnout. I believe turnout was actually higher than expected. I know in my town the election workers were told to expect around 25 people. About 75 turned out (I live in a very tiny town)
There is no reason to think Hurt can’t win in November if we show a united front.
Mike McPadden, Jim McKelvey, please come out and publically support Robert Hurt!
People will vote in November.
To those who are thinking of voting for Clark over Hurt, I say:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0x-fkSYDtUY
The “principled stand” argument would make a little more sense if Hurt was an Olympia Snow/Susan Collins/Charlie Crist/Alan Specter type, but he isn’t. He has a good conservative voting record (see Kurt’s analysis: http://virginiafifthwatchdog.com/2010/05/robert-hurts-conservative-voting-record/). Sure, he was picked by the “establishment”, and has made a few bad votes, but I think he has heard the tea party message loud and clear, and will do a good job for us. Some recent evidence that Hurt “gets it”: http://www.examiner.com/examiner/x-43619-Charlottesville-Libertarian-Examiner~y2010m6d13-GOP-congressional-nominee-Robert-Hurt-discusses-constitutional-principles.
Just as many commented during the primary that the candidates who don’t have a chance of winning should step down for the good of the movement (remember how they were described as delusional and egotistical?), we should all agree that Clark should withdraw his name, and we should all get behind the conservative who has a good chance of winning, Robert Hurt.
Looking at this another way, Hurt would have to be a pretty poor conservative in order for us to want to throw an election (i.e., vote for Clark on “principle”, and allow Perriello to win), but this just isn’t the case. He has a good conservative record.
I think Hurt will do a good job for us, but I realize you all have to decide on your own. I encourage you to listen to him and question him. I don’t think Hurt can win without the support of the tea partyers, so it’s in his interest to convince you. I suggest that the tea party groups invite Hurt to come talk before them, so he can hear and address your concerns. The sooner, the better…
For nearly a decade, every time that I have encountered Tucker Watkins or read something about him, one of my great aunt Ella’s sayings has immediately come to mind: dumb and mean is a bad combination.
Stephen, thanks for being one of the first to finally give us reasons to vote for hurt and not against perriello. I wish more people would take this approach.
Stephen (and Robert Hurt):
I am looking for every reason in the world to support Robert Hurt, but the Charlottesville Libertarian Examiner article you cite above causes even more concern.
From the Article: Hurt is supportive of the “concept” of the Enumerated Powers Act? The Act merely requires each bill to contain a citation specifically stating which portion of the Constitution authorizes the legislation. Why can Hurt not out right support the Bill?
The entire Bill is two pages long, with the pertinent language as follows: “Each Act of Congress shall contain a concise and definite statement of the constitutional authority relied upon for the enactment of each portion of that Act.” That is all.
The link to the Bill is here: “http://frwebgate.access.gpo.gov/cgi-bin/getdoc.cgi?dbname=111_cong_bills&docid=f:h450ih.txt.pdf”
Commentary on the Bill can be found here: “http://www.heritage.org/Research/Reports/2009/06/The-Enumerated-Powers-Act-A-First-Step-Toward-Constitutional-Government”
It is just this sort of eqivocation that worries Tea Party folks about Robert Hurt. We are talking about a two page bill, with the pertinent portion being ONE short sentence. Hurt says he “agrees with the concept.” I could understand Hurt agreeing “with the concept” of a preemptive strike against Iran but desiring to know more about the specifics of such a complex plan before he could support it, but merely agreeing to the “concept” of a one sentence bill?!! He obviously has not even read the bill. And he obviously has not spent the two minutes I did in a Google search to find it. Either Robert Hurt does not care about these sorts of ideas, or he has been too busy with his campaign(?), or he just does not get it. I will withhold my verdict and give the fellow a little more time. It is high time to get with the program, Mr. Hurt.
Likewise, Mr. Hurt’s answer to which of the federal programs he would eliminate reminds me of Jim McKelvey’s answer to a similar question asked of McKelvey during the Charlottesville debate. McKelvey could not name one federal program that violated the 10th Amendment, while, here, Robert Hurt similarly states he wants to do a holistic approach – i.e., “I will look at everything and not commit to anything.” McKelvey’s answer stemmed from pure ignorance, not excusable but understandable. I think Hurt’s answer stems from fear of taking a principled stand.
Mr. Hurt, folks are looking for a LEADER willing to put his name, his reputation, his CAREER, on the line in this fight to reign in the federal monolith and restore our constitutional republic. We have doubts whether you are that type of leader. PLEASE prove us wrong by taking stands on these type issues NOW. Tell us what you will do in Washington, and tell us NOW. Will you be a puppy in the lap of Cantor and Boehner, or will you be a thorn in their side until they come over to our (constitutional conservative) camp? This is what we are looking for.
Mr. Hurt, why do you find it so hard to state plainly the federal Department of Education is an intrusive and unconstitutional program? The Northwest Ordinance, enacted 1789, affirmed the Founder’s view that education is a state matter. The federal Department of Education forces mandates on our communities with our own money, as you clearly state in the Libertarian article, thereby controlling education throughout the country. Why the hesitation on your part to condemn it and state you will work for its elimination?
Mr. Hurt, in the Article you state: “If there’s a good reason for [the Department's] existence, it’s not clear to me.” I have no doubt some type of good comes from the Department. But this should not be your first consideration if you become Congressman. Your first consideration should be whether IT IS CONSTITUTIONAL. If you want to be Congressman, start acting like it, take a stand, and see if folks will rally ’round.
It is precisely these type hedges and equivocations on your part that cause so many of us to conclude you are a career politician looking to take the next step up your perceived career ladder. But is your base strong enough to support the ladder?
As Whitakker Chambers stated, “It is a simple, rational faith that inspires men to live or die for it.” While this quote is admittedly melodramatic, it exemplifies the need of the moment: Give us a simple, rational belief that support of your campaign will allow us to live by our principles.
The current supporters of your campaign would point to the defeat of Perriello as enough of a purpose to cause us to back your campaign. You should realize this will not do, as this position calls on us to rationalize away our principles in support of you rather than sticking wtih our principles in support of Clark. YOU must give us a principled reason(s) to support you, as we are determined, from this point on, to stick by our principles.
You say you are the man; you say you are the conservative candidate. Show me.
This race is going to be far tighter than the GOP is predicting. The Clark factor is going to be so much more a handicap to Hurt than I believe the GOP is thinking. They truly miscalculated the anger at the establishment. I believe Robert Hurt has some almost impossible hurdles to overcome in exciting what he, and the GOP have always considered his base.
Once the Soros/BHO money starts pouring into this district, those ignorant voters who put Tommy ‘the Commie’ in office are going to be MORE than energized. The GOP believes otherwise, but, liberals are easy to manipulate. They are movitated by what makes them feel good, or outright bridery from the gubm’t. The GOP is expecting conservatives to rally behind Hurt with the energy of their fear and anger. BUT, they totally miscalculated how much of that fear and angrer their “base” has against them for what they have done. Tucker Watkins and his crew must shoulder much of that blame. Sad, sad, situation. This has absolutely backfired on Robert Hurt. He has a very difficult task in front of him to repair this.
The Tea Party movement has been screaming at the top of their lungs that things have changed. The GOP simply would not listen. Now they will attempt to hang their failures on the very people they should have been listening to. How stupid, or corrupt, can a group of people be? I think living inside the beltway must rot your brain and eliminate ANY possibility of living up to your commitments.
If Shad Plank is to be believed, the DNC will spend $50 million on efforts to defend Congressional seats. Perriello has $2 million already. Let’s get it together. work to defeat Perriello.
Please note that the photograph of Tucker Watkins accompanying this article has been copyrighted by the photographer and has been used without permission.
I checked the properties and the comments/text associated with this photo and it was at a public site: http://www.facebook.com/ricksincere?ref=ts#!/photo.php?pid=4351992&id=532901327 and I didn’t see any restriction associated with it.
Looks like I forgot to site the source which you have corrected here.
Would you like us to remove the pic?