Here is the rest of the poll that WE here at the Watchdog site commissioned with the help of an anonymous donor. Some have questioned if that donor was Vance Wilkins. Some have thrown out wild and sometimes insulting conspiracy theories. None of that nonsense is true. We will not release the name of the donor. Don’t ask. Gripe away but you’ll be wasting your time. We will say that it was NOT Vance Wilkins.
We find it amusing that for months EVERY poll ever done by anyone is “called into question” We had complaints from people screaming “when will someone do a professional poll?” and when we have one done, we get a bunch of whining little girls calling this poll into question. MAKE UP YOUR MIND!
Pulse Opinion Research is a reputable polling company. Some people think that this is great for Hurt…Is it? There is almost 1/2 of the voters polled were undecided and could break for one of the other candidates. 2/3 of the voters polled were not supporting Hurt. Make of it what you will. This race remains a close one because of 3 candidates that REFUSE to drop out despite less than stellar performance throughout this process.
| Total | Gender | Age | |||||||
| LV’s | Male | Female | 18-29 | 30-39 | 40-49 | 50-64 | 65+ | ||
| Vote for Congress in VA5 | McKelvey | 8% | 9% | 7% | 28% | 11% | 6% | 7% | 6% |
| McPadden | 5% | 7% | 2% | 10% | 0% | 2% | 6% | 5% | |
| Hurt | 25% | 26% | 25% | 7% | 20% | 23% | 28% | 30% | |
| Boyd | 7% | 6% | 7% | 7% | 4% | 5% | 9% | 6% | |
| Morton | 4% | 4% | 4% | 0% | 7% | 10% | 1% | 3% | |
| Ferrin | 2% | 3% | 0% | 0% | 4% | 1% | 2% | 2% | |
| Verga | 1% | 1% | 1% | 0% | 0% | 3% | 0% | 2% | |
| Not sure | 48% | 44% | 53% | 48% | 55% | 51% | 47% | 46% | |
The site is not wide enough to show you all the data so you can Download the Poll Here
Also here are the straw poll results from the debate at LU
Will, I totally agree with you with one exception; you cannot talk them into dropping out. You can effectively bump them out by making an endorsement and then telling them that you will not entertain them anymore and would request that they throw their support behind the TP endorsed candidate. Everyone of these guys will sit and watch the returns with a big smile thinking that they are the one that won, even if all polling says they have .05 percent of the vote which is statistically half of their own family.
Oh Micah I agree you not going to just talk either one into it but a Tea party endorsement in my opinion would put alot of pressure on the one that didn’t get it. Sorry for the pressure Mark Lloyd but we have to get this done.If you can get both campaigns to agree to a McConvention and whoever wins the other campaign must endorse and work for the other one.The Tea party will have loads of instant power from now on.Once again Mark sorry for the pressure.This is just very important to me.
I appreciate all the confidence people have in the leadership of the Tea Party in this thing. I think I have something to blog, but will do it later, Here is the thumbnail:
The Tea Party is NOT a political party. Frankly, I hope it never becomes one. We are decentralized. Leaders are only leaders if they have people willing to follow them. There is NO authority other than a CHOICE by a follower to look to that leader for direction and perhaps some inspiration. NOTHING CAN BE ENFORCED.
There is NO ONE alive on this planet today that has ANY direct experience in doing what we are doing in the Tea Party movement. The last folks that I know of have their names on our founding documents. It took them many YEARS to bring order to the chaos created when a FREE people RECLAIMED their freedom. We have had a very fast start, and we are on our way, but this battle is not going to be won in a single election cycle. We are well on our way. We are smarter than we were only 15 months ago, and we are MUCH more organized. We have had several victories, but the contest continues, and we will NOT win them all.
My question to those requesting that the Tea Party fix this thing, and do it quickly, is how many of you are actively involved in this fight along with us? If you are not PLEASE contact me, or any other group close by you and offer your help. We need you. I find it odd that when I am invited to speak to groups, I have many good people ask me the question of “what does the Tea Party think about this, or that” and they fully expect me to give them answer. I can’t. The Tea Party is NOT the Borg (Star Trek). We are NOT a bunch of collectivist liberals who can only survive on “group-think.” We are simply FREEDOM LOVING INDIVIDUALs who THINK for ourselves becoming engaged in the clean up and repair of a sabotaged and corrupted system of politics and government. Often we find ourselves having to do the really dirty work since so many are willing to sit on the sidelines and let us do it. The frustrating part is that those sitting on the sidelines are ALL willing to TELL us how to do it. Tell us what we should do, but UNWILLING to jump in and sweat, bleed, lose friends, be ridiculed in the press, then told that you are a failure if you are unable to pull of the blindfolded, behind-the-back, underhanded, left handed jump shot from the back of a moving semi in the rain. What’s with all that?
Here is the way one of the Mc’s win this thing. Ready:
1. Voters look at the platform and focus of the campaigns
2. Look at the resources the campaigns can bring into play to win
3. Look at the different groups who are supporting the individual candidates
4. Decide who has the broadest appeal to the largest number of voters
5. Consider the reality that your favorite candidate may NOT be the favorite of others
6. Decide if you are willing to be pragmatic, or if you are going to stick to a strict adherence to your principles and vote for the candidate who is in 100% agreement with your stances.
7. Decide whether you are going to vote to win, or are you going to vote to just make a statement and tell yourself that compromise is wrong.
8. Then once you have made your decision, go to WORK and bring others to your position, make sure they get to the polls, and bring their friends.
If any of you out there can convince one of the Mc’s to get out and back the other, or ANY of the others for that matter, you will have accomplished what the Tea Party has been trying to do for months.
As far as money goes… (R)s need to start doing some fund raising cuz this doesn’t look good…
“In the 5th district, which covers a wide swath from the North Carolina border up past Charlottesville, state Sen. Robert Hurt remains the leading Republican contender to face Rep. Tom Perriello (D) in the fall. Hurt raised $115,000 for the period and had $122,000 on hand as of May 19. Former airline pilot Michael McPadden had $164,000 left in the bank but only brought in $12,000 in those seven weeks.
Property developer Jim McKelvey took in $83,000 for the period — nearly all of it from loans to himself — but had $731 left over as of May 19. (FEC reports indicate that McKelvey has given himself another $50,000 in the last week.) Businessman Laurence Verga raised $16,000 for the period and had $61,000 left over. Schoolteacher Feda Morton brought in $30,000 and had $9,000 left in the bank, while Albemarle County Supervisor Ken Boyd had not filed his pre-primary report as of Friday. Perriello, meanwhile, has a tidy $1.6 million sitting in the bank.”
micah, you are right. Fundraising is going to be a tremendous issue going forward after the primary. It would be for any of our current candidates.
and as much as it might pain some of us to admit, the winner of this primary will have to accept out of district money to compete with Perriello.
Mark I agree with 99.4% of what you said.Im tired of voting for the lesser of two evils it will NOT happen this time.I think Tucker/Hurt have promised some of these candidates something to stay in the race.It is right out of Tucker’s play book.
Kelley do you think taking out of state money is right ?
Light bulb just went on! We need nullification of the health care bill on the ballot in all 50 states. This will hyper-excite the conservative voting block and then force all the candidates to take a side on nullification…. LANDSLIDE!
Then in February we get out the articles of impeachment and make the idiot fill in for the unpresident.
Will, I think it is a reality of the process. And if you think about it, a Congressman’s vote affects the entire country as well as just his/her district. That is part of the argument for accepting out-of-district/out-of-state funds.
and Will, what could Hurt possibly promise any of these people to stay in the race?
A job or a endorsement if they run for office.What you don’t have a copy of Tucker’s playbook.
Will, you are on to something there. But, do a little more looking around. Check out the situation in VA2, VA9, NM1, CO4, PA12, SC5 and the list goes on. I think it is a bigger problem overall. The GOP for years was the “next in line” party when choosing candidates. I am increasingly convinced that the GOP has found a brilliant strategy to keep NON-Rino’s out. I think I would call it “Anoint & Dilute.” The GOP establishment simply anoints their favorite, work behind the scenes to raise money and give other support, while encouraging the ANTI-establishment candidates to flood the field and dilute the conservative vote. It is a simple but effective strategy. You have heard it called “divide and conquer” and have been aware of it forever. We were beaten before we started. Human nature being what it is, you can see the ego, denial, and delusion on display.
Unification is a pipe dream at this point. Both Mc’s worked hard to select a single challenger. As egos have shown, there is little short of a miracle that is going to make some of these clowns drop.
At this point Feda, Ferrin, and Verga are working for Hurt. That’s their choice. They could endorse, but nothing has come out so far. It appears they will jealously cling to their minuscule support until the bitter end.
As for McPadden and McKelvey? Well, both have ardent supporters. Many of them aren’t represented by the poll of prior republican primary voter. I don’t know if any of you have noticed, but there are a LOT of NEW political zealots this year. They don’y show up on the lists of likely republican primary voters. As a result, fathoming exactly their respective following size is beyond difficult. Depending on who and how you ask yields wildly different results.
Fund raising? Really? The real money is sitting this primary out. They’ll wait until their money is not likely to be wasted(i.e. donated to a primary also-ran) to give big bucks. I promise whoever wins the nomination may not have much money now, but they’ll get it. And lets not be naive, outside money is part of the game. We can whine about it, but it happens every race. Our opponents will do it, and the eventual nominee will too.
The tea party cannot remove names or egos from this race. It’s not a sign of their impotence, but rather a sign of who is in the Tea Party, independent thinkers. Its not their fault, its our fault. We allowed this situation to progress. Individuals, not the tea party, donated to and supported nonviable candidates. So we’re left with seven and we’ll probably get the establishment candidate as a result.
Va 5 and Mark im sad to say you are both most likely right but it sure stinks to all high.I keep thinking about Scott Brown.
VA #5, your analysis is correct. Your conclusion does not have to be. Everybody realizes there is a problem and now it is time to bring out a solution. A Tea Party endorsement could be huge for one of the non-establishment candidates and could *potentially* force some of the others out and make them endorse the TP’s pick. There are leaders and there are followers, you guys are the tiny rudder that steers the huge ship. So you all need to set a course and drag everybody with you. Get ONE candidate, and make it a GOOD one.
“Fund raising? Really? The real money is sitting this primary out. They’ll wait until their money is not likely to be wasted(i.e. donated to a primary also-ran) to give big bucks. I promise whoever wins the nomination may not have much money now, but they’ll get it. And lets not be naive, outside money is part of the game. We can whine about it, but it happens every race. Our opponents will do it, and the eventual nominee will too.”
Finally, some sense.
Steps on how to piss off Tea Partiers:
1. Have the “Tea Party” endorse a candidate.
2. Well, they should be mad enough by this point.
scott brown was raking in over $1 million/day from money bombs carried by AceofSpades & other websites. People were commenting on HotAir that they had donated to him.
there are alot of Congressional races that the GOP has a shot this year so money will have to be spread out.
but here is a bit of good news: if Griffith can keep up with Boucher til the very end, then DNC will have to defend Boucher before they defend Perriello. So let’s pull for Griffith, too.
“Steps on how to piss off Tea Partiers:
1. Have the “Tea Party” endorse a candidate”
And sound logic prevails.
All that matters is if McP or McK would agree to a convention. Its doesn’t have to be a TP convention, and none of the other candidates have to participate. Unless McP and McK refuse to convene, then resistance [to a convention of sorts] is futile (sorry for the pun Mark.)
What is Boyd’s situation? Just looking at numbers, if I were McP or McK, I would be soliciting Boyd for his support. I understand that there may be some delusional candidates, but any rational person must see the writing on the wall. That makes me wonder if its really delusion, or redirection. (We know from Kelly’s presence that the Hurt campaign is following this thread.)
There are TP’s endorsing candidates: http://tertiumquids.blogspot.com/2010/05/tea-party-group-goes-for-loyola-in-2nd.html
Micah, step on in here with the Tea Party crowd. You will see things from a different perspective. It is just not as simple as we would like it to be. Big ship, small rudder is a good analogy. At this point it is too late. The course is set. We just have to come together and see how things look on June 9th. Sorry. Sometimes the truth is just tough to swallow. There are contingency plans, don’t worry about that. But, until we know what we need to know it is not wise to speculate.
BTW-There as many ways to piss off a Tea Partier as there are Tea Partiers. But, what pisses us off most of all is someone trying to tell us what we should do and having NO idea how to do it themselves. There are quite a few arm chair quarterbacks out there.
Boyd getting behind someone is an interesting thought. Once again though, conventions of any kind needed to happen MONTHS ago. I’m pretty sure both McPadden and McKelvey have already scheduled and paid for advertising. They’re NOT gonna drop out. The time now, if you’re truly this fired up, is to make your choice and get on your soapbox. We can write on the internet all day long, but you’re better off making an informed decision and telling your real life friends.
I’ll be bringing a score of newly minted McPadden supporters to the polls with me. I’d advise you do the same.
You’re singing my tune VA#5…McPadden is on the move!
Mark, I am not quite sure what your getting at or who you are directing your second paragraph at. Could you elaborate?
scott brown was raking in over $1 million/day from money bombs carried by AceofSpades & other websites. People were commenting on HotAir that they had donated to him.
there are alot of Congressional races that the GOP has a shot this year so money will have to be spread out.
but here is a bit of good news: if Griffith can keep up with Boucher til the very end, then DNC will have to defend Boucher before they defend Perriello. So let’s pull for Griffith, too.
Micah, yes I will elaborate. One thing we in the Tea Party have given to us by the ton is advice. Everyone from the big national groups to regular Joe individuals are willing to give us advice on how to do things, and they think we are just useless if we don’t take it. However, they don’t tend to show up to actually help us do things. The view from the inside out is much different than that from the outside looking in. This is the sort of thing that pisses us off.
On the subject of getting the Tea Party behind ONE candidate. We could write volumes of comments about what we have tried to do to make that happen. The fact remains that the efforts to do that have been ongoing, BUT unless the candidates themselves are willing to work with us, which they are not, it will never happen.
We have a couple of VERY acceptable candidates and their supporters are entrenched. Therefore, it is virtually impossible to get a Tea Party endorsement for one, and tell the other one to take the back seat. Let’s say that 4,000 voters are participants in the Tea Party, and the Mc’s each have 2,000 of those followers. If Mc #1 gets the endorsement, are all of Mc#2′s supporters going to move there support unless Mc#2 steps out voluntarily? No. VA2 is NOT the same thing. The Hampton Roads Tea Party leadership ALL agreed there was only really one candidate that was acceptable. That district is represented by one Tea Party group. VA5 has 5.
Hope that helps explain things from “inside” the Tea Party.
Well, I was unaware that there were 5 TP groups. That is very enlightening and complicates the matter further. I think the VA 5th can be a good case study for future primaries.
Are each of the 5 TPs supporting a different candidate?
while some of you may think your inability to unite behind/nominate a TP candidate is a negative, it may also show that the TEA party is not necessarily a structured organization meanings that decisions can be made quickly without alot of hoopla or regimen. And that could be a good thing.
the TEA party, nationally, as well as locally, has done much to raise awareness & encourage participation in the political process. Be very proud of this.
Don’t check your pragmatism at the door. Keep your eye on the prize. And the prize is sending Perriello back home.
The math here forgets much. McKelvey + McPadden does not = Hurt. Even if you add in the doomed 3 it still don’t equal Hurt. Boyd is actually the one you want to keep in. He takes votes from Hurt and not TEA party folks. His supporters are northern main line republicans who really don’t know Hurt all that well. But if Boyd leaves he could support Hurt and none of your math works no matter what you do.
I truly can’t see Boyd supporting either of the Mc’s
The fragmentation of the TEA party is exactly what the Hurt camp wanted.
Hurt will be the next nominee
There is 50% undicided. Hurt hardly has it wrapped up.
we did phone calling for Hurt. Based on my gut take on the “undecideds” (actually there were only a few among those I called here), they probably won’t vote.
its June. The children are out of school. The TV isn’t dominated with the 5th CD election. People just want a candidate to rally behind–they don’t seem to be that interested in having a hand in picking the candidate. I am sometimes shocked that people aren’t as fascinated/involved with this process as I am, but they aren’t.
Kelly’s right-The 50% undecided won’t vote 100% turnout. Since I assume this was a robopoll there probably wasn’t likely voter and other screenings that you get in better polls that would have probably reduce undecideds and give you a better sample result. Cheap poll cheap result- that’snot to say inaccurate just less accurate.
It’s also true that undecideds break about the same as those stating a preference.
The Main Event: Hurt vs. Perriello
Don’t count on it.Establishment candidates have not done really well lately.
I don’t believe this poll will accurately predict the actual result. If you look just at the people who expressed a preference (i.e., undecideds stay home), you get:
Hurt 48%
McK 15%
Boyd 13%
McP 10%
I expect a tighter race and would be surprised if the following did not turn out to be true:
McP + McK >= Hurt, and
McP + McK >= Boyd
Stephen it will be a close race that’s the only thing we can be sure of.
Tea Party majority support across the 5 groups is split relatively even between the Mc’s as best we can tell. The Danville Tea Party does have some Hurt supporters. It’s “leader,” Nigel Coleman endorsed Feda (we are all wondering about that one). The Lynchburg Tea Party doesn’t seem to have any Hurt or Feda supporters. The C’ville group appears to be fractured even more. They don’t participate it the internal canvassing we do. But, from what we do hear from some up that way is that McPadden, Boyd, Verga, McKelvey and even some Feda folks show up. So, it really does make it virtually impossible to get an agreement on a single candidate. If you think you’re frustrated, you should be in our position.
I very seldom find myself in agreement with Kelley, but math is math. Based on history I suspect that the undecided at this point are not going to show up in any real numbers to vote. Those that do I suspect will break out much as our polling shows, maybe a little more toward NOT-Hurt, but not significantly. The safe bet is that on June 9th we are looking at a Hurt, Perriello, and Clarke contest. Hurt immediately becomes handicapped 3-5%. The media is going to pour in this district and claim that Clarke is the Tea Party candidate, which he is NOT, Jeff himself has NEVER claimed to be. All this is going to be the advantage to Pelosi-ello. Some Hurt backers dismiss this, or think the threat of this is a campaign strategy. I have spoken with Clarke and he knows the difficultly, and the most likely results. But, his thought, and the thought of MORE than most people think, is that it would be better to have Perriello than a RINO, because we would never be able to get rid of the RINO, and we would have another shot at Perriello in 2012.
All of this, plus the fact that Pelosi-ello has an unlimited checkbook, and that Hurt is going to have a difficult time getting the NON-Hurt GOP and the Tea Party crowd enthusiastic about really working hard for him is going to be a problem. Then there is the ultimate wild card of Virgil Goode. I’m NOT completely convinced he has shut the door on an indy run. He has said he’s not looking to do it, BUT he has said he wants a “real conservative” candidate, and I’ve never heard him refer to Robert as such. I’m just not counting that one out. He has until the 8th to decide and get his signatures, and I think he can do that in an afternoon.
So, my fellow VA5 voters, Tea Party, and NON-Tea Party, we are in for several more long hot months. They are going to be full of fun, excitement, and frustration for us all. This is not a game. It is a fight for our national existence, and we need to get the battlefield mentality, and NOT just put on a game face.
Until June 8th I am supporting Jim McKelvey for many reasons. If on June 9th I see Mike McPadden is the candidate I will be a proud Mike man. If Robert wins I will have to check out the situation and decide which contingency plan is applicable.
Mark, here is where I disagree with you. Either of my 2 cats would be a better representative in Washington than Tom Perriello.
And I disagree with you on another point: we need to get Perriello now. Every day that he sits up there, he collects more union money/support & hands out more fed money where he can buy votes.
and finally, you are patriots. Give Robert Hurt an opportunity to show you that he is one, too.
Perriello is the target.
Mark Lloyd I like you more everyday.As you know I have been in the McPadden camp from the very start.However if ANY of the other candidates win the primary they will have my full support except Robert Hurt.This is not a campaign ploy this is the plain and simple truth.We can make it another two years with Perriello better than ten years with Hurt.If Hurt wins the primary the next day im in the Clark/Goode camp.Hurt has already shown me he can’t stand up to the Democrats I don’t need to send him to congress to see this just look at his past voting record.With the tension we have now in the 5th Virgil could run as a indy and still win in my opinion. What are the Republican party elite going to say bad about Goode after backing him for years.
Kelley, you’re cats would be better than Perriello, if you read what I wrote, I never said I was backing Jeff Clarke, I’m stating the fact that he is going to pull off 3-5% of the much needed vote, and that is a handicap for your precious Bobby.
Also, your Bobby is NOT going to get the enthusiastic support from the folks that didn’t vote for him in the primary. I figure at least 52%. Sorry to break it to you, BUT not everyone falls in lock-step with you and the GOP establishment. Bobby has a lot of bridges to mend, and many to build to get the support he is going to need to beat the Obama/Soros machine. If you think otherwise you are just as delusional as Ron Ferrin thinking he stands a chance of winning the primary.
What magic words do you think I, or any other Tea Party leader, are going to be able to use to make everyone get behind Robert? You fail to understand that as awful as Tommy the Commie is many don’t see a bit of difference between a John McCain type RINO and the democrats anyway. Unfortunately, some view Robert as sort of a “go along to get along” RINO. I personally don’t see him that way. I think if Robert can reach out to some of the less trusting and convince them to give him a chance it would work for him. He also needs to understand that he is going to be watched like a hawk, and that the VA5 District leadership is NO LONGER run by your good buddy Tucker and crew. If Robert scratches out a win, he will either keep his promises or face a convention/primary to replace him.
Thanks, Will. I appreciate your comments. I hope that people like Kelley will come to their senses and realize that things have changed and conservatives are NOT going to put up with democrats and then democrat-lite republicans. We know the sentiment that is out there, and the GOP, Bobby Hurt groupies just don’t seem to get it.
WillWhite if you think that 2 more years of Perriello is a good idea then you have zero idea of what you are talking about. Why? redistricting will happen after the fall election. If Perriello is in that seat we will never get him out. The 5th will never again look like it does today.
If the TEA party gets behind Jeff Clark (and it doesn’t even have to be official) what they will have done is give Perriello a permanent seat. You have to look at the whole board, not just gaze at June 8th and think of little else.
Bob McDonnell and Bill Bolling will have a big part of the redistricting.CJ Perriello would love to seperate Charlottesville from the southside which some of us think could make the Republican party alot stronger.
And the democratically dominated Va Senate will also have a big say. What’s your point Will? The sitting congressman is almost always protected. Your logic on re-electing Perriello is just dead wrong. What do you want 10 years of Perriello or Hurt?
I don’t want Hurt or Perriello for the next ten years.
There would be some wisdom in not passing up on a decent candidate just to stick it to the GOP. Scozzafazza is the only reason to give the GOP the birdie and support a 3rd, and Hurt does not seem to be a Scozzafazza. The TEA Party can pressure Hurt to vote right. Perriello just does not give a ^%&*.
Micah the GOP needs a wake up call in my opinion.
Indeed. They also need to be encouraged when they do something right. They also need their leadership removed. One step at a time.
I don’t anticipate the Tea Parties will get behind Clarke, but some of our members will, as well as some independents and scared democrats. I want L’il Tommy Pelosi-ello in the unemployment line. But, getting the majority of the Tea Party crowd excited about replacing him with Hurt is going to be a HUGE chore, and those of us involved in Tea Party leadership will need lots of help IF we decide to move that direction. Most will go to the polls and vote against Perriello, but not FOR Hurt. They will also not work as needed to get Bobby boy elected without some serious reach out from him. These are the facts as I see them. If Robert does get elected you can rest assured that Tea Party pressure will be constant. His first term will be his last if he doesn’t honor his commitments.
The establishment should be reading this thread and should be scared. The problems with Robert Hurt are not his “voting record” that I’ve already addressed in a past post. It is his perceived voting record. That perception will keep people from giving up their free time. Will keep them in front of American Idol reruns and from going door to door. It will keep their checkbook put away. It will make some stay home. Just enough maybe to ensure a Perriello win.
If Hurt wins the primary I can vote for him. I’m not thrilled with that prospect but I hate…yes HATE Tom Perriello. So much so that I’d vote for a
CJ is right on the redistricting issue once they gerrymander the district the only way we could then get rid of Tommy Boy is…
My biggest problem with Robert Hurt is that he is a Lawyer…most lawyers DO NOT understand the constitution because they view it from the lens of “case law” and not its VERY simple language or the historical context in which it was written. They see a bill and think ” what have the courts said about this issue” forgetting that they are a part of a SEPARATE branch of government. I don’t care what the courts have said. Abortion is wrong. Firearms laws are wrong. well, almost everything they do in D.C. is wrong because of all the stupid lawyers.
Go Mike McPadden!
Just my 2 cents. I will be voting for McPadden on june 8th. If he loses to another Tea Party candidate I will support that candidate in Nov. If he loses to Hurt, I will stay home in Nov.
If I hadn’t seen this site I would never have known about some of Hurt’s bad votes.