Breaking News:
Virginia Fifth Watchdog is pleased to be the FIRST to bring you this poll conducted by a professional outside polling organization.
The poll was conducted on May 17th, by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC
An outside donor not affiliated with any of the campaigns helped to commission this poll.
500 Likely GOP Primary Voters this shakes out as follows.
| Not sure | 48% |
| Hurt | 25% |
| McKelvey | 8% |
| Boyd | 7% |
| McPadden | 5% |
| Morton | 4% |
| Ferrin | 2% |
| Verga | 1% |
We will begin releasing the details of the poll results on Wednesday.
Voters and the Campaigns have been asking for a professional poll done by an outside organization for a while now. Here it is.
What did I just say ? Feda,Verga,and Ferrin combined only have 7% of the vote they should ALL drop out now.What shocked me is that 48% are not sure.
WOW! What Will said..
I see the undecided as a good thing.
Seems like 48% undecided does not bode well for Hurt since he is the best known. I don’t see plain old joes passionately behind him.
From what I see on the ground, I think it depends on how Boyd, McKelvey and McPadden finish these last 2 weeks, and the most passionate supporters seem to be McKelvey and McPadden…
Ars, I think this bodes extremely well for Hurt, short-term. If he’s got 25% locked up that means the other candidates are in trouble for this reason: I have a hard time imagining that Hurt will pull in zero of the undecideds going forward. First there is just the probability of the most favored candidate getting no remaining voters, secondly, undecideds may make their decision (at least some of them) on electability, and Hurt is certainly portraying himself as that (he also still has plenty of money to keep advertising in print/radio/tv. But even if he were to not get a single undecided, the closest competitor, McKelvey, would need to pull more than 1/3 of the undecideds in his favor while losing zero. The McKelvey ad buy was on cable rather than broadcast and only 25,000 which is really small. People aren’t seeing a lot of these ads and it takes time to get into people’s minds. If I’m Hurt, I think this matches up well w/ my internal polling, and I’m feeling good. To win, I think the other candidates need to do a serious 100k+ ad buy that is both detrimental to Hurt and raises their own profile. Hard to do.
Ars you are very correct.If Hurt as some say is the only candidate that can win why are 48% still undecided ? Almost double the people that support Hurt are not sure who they will vote for.The people that were polled were hard R’s if they were just likely voters Hurt would have been behind McPadden,McKelvey,or Boyd.We should all get behind one candidate so we can send a true conservative to office.
Chris is WSET 13 a cable network ?
Will, WSET 13 is certainly broadcast. I’d based my comment about cable off of this DP article: http://www2.dailyprogress.com/cdp/news/state_regional/state_regional_govtpolitics/articl/hitting_it_hard_gop_primary_hurts_to_lose/56459/
Other reports seem to say it’s mostly broadcast so I apologize for that mistake. It is only a 25k buy according to the WaPo (http://voices.washingtonpost.com/virginiapolitics/2010/05/mckelvey_on_the_air_in_va-5_pr.html).
Sorry for the mixup.
But Will, that’s the problem. Which candidate? You asked me the other day who I was supporting…
People like you won’t be easily swayed from McPadden. People like Mark Lloyd won’t be easily swayed from McKelvey. Etc. That’s why at this point, I’m slightly leaning toward Boyd.
I think he’s the most conservative candidate that the most people can get behind that can beat Perriello in November.
He’s been through the firing squad, and has shown he can be trusted to hold his ground when things get tough. I think McP is a little too libertarian for some primary voters. I think McK might be a little too “fringey” for some primary voters. They each will have support, and would be fine candidates, don’t get me wrong, but at this point I think Boyd’s got the chance for the most wide-spectrum of support.
I’m still open to supporting other candidates, but Boyd seems like the type of candidate that can pull together a wide coalition of voters: more traditional Republicans, libertarian types, value voters, disaffected Reagan Democrats, party officials, people that won’t vote for an unknown or “fringe” candidate, business owners, and other people that just are angry with the Democrats in Washington. It’s hard to see how anyone other than Hurt (and perhaps not even him) can get all of the groups together, and I don’t want to support Hurt at this point.
Maybe I’ll have more later. And be advised that while my principles are set in stone, my opinion is subject to change.
I have a comment awaiting moderation b/c i included a couple of links tot he stories, but Will, you’re right WSET is broadcast. I included a link of a DP article calling it a cable buy, and a WaPo article saying it was $25,000 buy. Looks like the DP article was wrong (the WaPo says it was broadcast). Sorry for the mixup
i spent the weekend calling on behalf of Hurt. my bet is that I called the same “likey GOP primary voters” that this poll called.
even these likely GOP primary voters are not as in tune with this race as they were with the last GOP primary: Presidential in 2008 which got tremendous media exposure.
many of these “undecideds” may not vote because this race doesn’t have the attention that a presidential one does. many of these “undecideds” will vote for whom they perceive as the winner of the primary, too.
this poll shows me 2 things: Hurt is the likely primary winner & that WE ALL have a long way to go before November.
my experience in a primary: first, the average voter–even the likely primary voter–is more concerned with beating Perriello than nominating one Republican or another. It is hard to bring them out of their complacency.
second, its summer time. People aren’t inside watching TV to see the ads & they aren’t “tuned up” to vote in June.
third, & this relates specifically to this 5th District: this is a media nightmare area to cover. What I mean by this is that this district is served by many different TV, radio & newspaper markets. Without big, big bucks, it will be hard to penetrate & make a real difference with advertising. A candidate can target an area, but its hard to blanket the whole district. (and we will have to blanket the whole district in November so get your checkbooks ready now).
as I say, this is only my personal experience with primaries.
Hurt voted for the largest tax increase in Virginia history.
Republicans stayed home after Bush 1 raised taxes, and we will stay home in November if tax-increaser Hurt wins the primary.
ars: we need to beat Perriello.
Ars you are right we will stay home or vote for a indy. If we are going to have a rep. voting for higher taxes and to promote same-sex marriage I would rather they have a D beside their name.Hurt will not get my vote I am tired of helping RINO’s it won’t happen this time.
Kelley we do need to beat Perriello but we need someone that won’t back down when times get tough.Hurt has shown me he can’t stand up to the Democrats.
votin INDY… I LIKE IT!
kelly, I hope Perriello appreciates how hard you are working to get him re-elected.
This looks very good for Hurt and spinning any other way is just wishful thinking. I’m not a Hurt supporter but it’s clear that with 2 weeks left it’s puts Hurt in the driver’s seat.
That said I await to see the details- for example geographic distribution, the actual questions asked, and who paid for it. Because if it’s not posted on the Pulse website and I can’t confirm from any reliable source then I’m calling BS.
Watchdog, I’m depending on you to be as transparent as possible in how you know this is a real poll results because if all you were shown was a piece of paper and someone anonymous gives their word- that’s just not going to be good enough. If you are going to run with it you owe us that much.
Hurt is in the driver’s seat, but he has no keys (principles)!
I am with you CJ on wanting some specifics from Watchdog on these new poll methods.
Just because you’re in the driver’s seat doesn’t mean you can reach the pedals or see over the dash.
The Watchdog’s credibility is at stake on this one. I’m NOT saying Watchdog has done anything wrong but how can they justify waiting until Wednesday?? That’s just wrong
What is the margin for error? Anything more than 3% puts all but Hurt in a dead heat.
Where are the cross tabs? Are they being fabricated? Why will it take 48 hours?
Where does Feda’s support go?
If there is not room for movement with the bottom 5, why is 48% undecided?
“I OWE YOU”? I owe you nothing. I’ll be releasing the rest of the numbers with age/party/male/female/etc on Wednesday.
You’ll just have to wait till then.
You’ll get the rest of the poll on Wednesday. It doesn’t take 48 hours. But that is when you’ll get it.
This is frighting! If it’s Hurt/Perriello, we will have to decide if we’re better off with a clear opponent in office rather than a lip-service Republican.
June 8th IS the election for me.
Also, to be fair, the full report should be released to the candidates so they can prepare their rebuttals. With this partial release, there is no way to evaluate the degree of error, specifically how the population was selected, etc.
Maybe he has to see who needs to be torn down the worst this week.
@Will: See my comments at “2:24 pm”.
YodraN you make a VERY good point but if we stay divided Hurt wins. As you know I am a McPadden supporter but if we could come up with a way to ALL get behind McPadden,McKelvey,or Boyd then I would give All my support to that candidate.In the past years the reason in my opinion we have been beat is the candidates we have chosen have not excited the base.Hurt will NOT excite the base or the Tea party groups.
Some real momentum would be at play if the bottom 4 (four), that’s “4″, would drop out after tomorrow’s debate and stand behind one of the non establishment candidates. That would suit me just fine. We’ll see if “it’s really about country and the cause” or whether egos still permeates the political atmosphere.
FYI-This was all done before the Feda stuff hit the media.
According to Robert Hurt’s last poll numbers, they had a plus or minus of 5%! REALLY interesting when all but 1 are within those margins.
Robert Hurt has the support of the GOP elite outside of that he doesn’t have as much support as McPadden,McKelvey,or Boyd.
Though I can only speak for what I have seen, Hurt rallied people when he was with TommyWright & Frank Ruff in my area.
There are farmers in Mecklenburg & Lunenburg that really like him. Farmers don’t generally think of themselves as elite.
also, Will, look at the FEC reports. It looks like Hurt has support from more people, just by looking at total donors, than McP, McK, Feda, Verga. I didn’t study Boyd’s so cannot say.
watchdog- sit on your Vance Wilkins paid for poll. He’s a McKelvey supporter and his $1500 dollar poll seems to have bought him your loyalty. It’s my fault really for expecting more transparency and disclosure from this site and the TEA party.
My bad.
This is an irresponsible, meaningless poll you have released, and should not be believed. This poll should not have been released without all methods and data included!
“An outside donor not affiliated with any of the campaigns helped to commission this poll.” Yeah, right, I was born yesterday!
CJ and JW are you serious? I don’t know who commissioned this poll as that was withheld from me. I’m looking into that now that you brought up your concerns.
IF it was VW (“a McKelvey supporter”)then why would he release the numbers? It only helps Robert Hurt as there is a 17% hurdle to overcome if he wants McK to win.
I’m so sick of the tin foil hat, conspiracy around every corner campaign supporters. I’m not thrilled at the prospect of Hurt winning as I support Mike, but At least Hurt’s supporters are not screaming some idiotic conspiracy warning EVERY day!
We have our reasons for not releasing this entire poll. I’ve no doubt that we’ll not get an apology for the false accusations and attacks once it is out this Wednesday.
It has been already discussed on twitter by several folks that Vance Wilkins paid for this poll which anyone can check on twitter and will recognize the two people involved:
svkenney @IsaacWood former Speaker Vance Wilkins helped produce the poll, according to friends. Hope we see more than toplines…
I have heard from several campaigns that Vance is a McKelvey supporter and has attended Lynchburg forums and have urge others in the movement to support his choice.
You can call it tinfoil but as you can’t deny that others seem to have information that you don’t. You can take the word of an anonymous poll and questions others integrity, classic.
From my perspective, Hurt is the GOP “Golden Boy”, McP and Boyd are just more “machine” type pols, Morton, Verga, Perrin and Co. may have good intentions, but they wouldn’t be effective, even if they were elected.
For my vote, Jim McKelvey is the true “citizen politician” who will represent us well, and get out once he has made his mark. I urge you to give McKelvey a second hard look. Decide for yourself who you want to represent you. Just PLEASE make an informed decision, and VOTE!
Robert Hurt introduced a bill (which passed) that authorized Commonwealth’s attorneys and their assistants to carry concealed handguns without a permit. Apparently, state employees deserve 2nd amendment freedoms more than private citizens.
http://www.richmondsunlight.com/bill/2008/sb776/
In Robert Hurt’s Virginia, everyone who ran a red light would be charged with reckless driving and be charged a minimum $500 fine.
http://www.richmondsunlight.com/bill/2007/hb2761/
CJ and JW, where might you believe this poll came from? You seem so sure that Vance Wilkins had it done. Have you contacted him about it? He’s in the phone book I believe. If the poll cost more than $1500 will that make a difference to you?
It was identified as “conducted on May 17th, by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC, c/o Rasmussen Reports, LLC.” If we claimed this, and it was false wouldn’t that be a problem? Why would we do something like that?
BTW-Did you ask the same questions about the poll Hurt did with a 300 person sample? Or, Feda’s victorious straw poll at the convention? Or, any of the dozens of other attempts that have been made to measure where we are in VA5? Which one of the dogs in this race is yours? So many questions, so few answers. So many people who just don’t trust anything they don’t like. But, will swallow any BS that seems to taste good for their choice.
Do you happen to support someone that a rational person, after seeing these numbers, might think to be a delusional ego maniac that should have stepped out long ago? Does this poll make some of the folks who are claiming to be great patriots, or anti-establishment champions just look irrational?
I’m not accusing anyone of anything. But, maybe some deep thought and consideration should be applied to those questions, by candidates and supporters alike. There is apparently some sort of strange transformation that takes place when a person turns from private citizen to politician. Perhaps we have identified the problem after all.
FYI-My endorsement of McKelvey that set everyone’s hair on fire, came before this poll was released.
After alot of thinking I can no longer support Robert Hurt.Mr Hurt im afraid has made some very bad votes in the past that I just became aware of.I officially withdraw my earlier endorsement of Mr Hurt.
How can you prove that this poll is other than a piece of paper that was handed to you? You seem to only know that’s it’s real but yet you can’t say where it came from or who paid for it. I can’t access this poll on Pulse’s website so who’s to say someone hasn’t made up the whole thing. Is it really so hard to understand why many here have a problem with the poll? Either have someone stand behind it or you should let it be.
The term you should be searching for is provenance-please look it up if you are unfamiliar. If you are going to muddy the waters with this poll is it too much to ask this polls origins.
You should have no trouble getting Vance’s contact info from the McKelvey camp- since you’re the ones put it on your site then you should get on the phone and ask him yourself.
I really could careless who you endorse and this poll isn’t far from what I believe to be true. But from a self proclaimed “watchdog” I expected more than “trust us” when matters such as a poll where discussed
CJ – simple answer: Rasmussen doesn’t put their names on fake polls. It would damage their reputation.
Where the money came from is irrelevant.
this bodes very well for hurt unless one of the newcomers spends another 1mil + starting tomorrow on tv and radio.
All those undecideds are going to be for hurt or unlikely to vote … People know his name.
Any chance a newcomer had was killed by the large number of opponents sharing the sliver of voters who actually care about what’s happening.
Newcomers need a get out the vote campaign, to late for that.
I can live with hurts voting record but will vote for mcpadden.
CJ Oh well if it’s on twitter then it’s gospel right? BTW Sean Kenney is another one of the many problems here in the 5th. By helping to keep Feda in this race he is just stoking the fires of delusion that are so common in politics. She should get out now, along with Ferrin and Verga. But alas they don’t seem prepared to do that. Apparently their Egos are more important than the nation. “Patriots”? Yeah right!
MM: How do you know it’s a Rasmussen poll? Did you find any mention of it on their website? How does anyone know someone didn’t just get some letterhead. I’m not saying it’s not from them but you can’t prove that it is from them either.
Watchdog are you calling Sean Kenny a liar? I agree that Feda should drop put but Sean can support whoever he wants, just like you can. I don’t agree with all that Sean says but you can’t say where this poll comes from and He seems to know a lot more about it’s origins then you do. But you can call Sean a liar right here if you would like to.
If you folks can’t make the effort to properly authenticated this poll how is the TEA party better then the two other parties you seem to hold in such disregard. I truly am stunned that you can’t see the problem.
@CJ, we know who commissioned and paid for the poll. It’s real. Now, you don’t have to trust us. You probably wouldn’t anyway since it is NOT something you WANT to believe. You still haven’t come clean as to who you are supporting, don’t you OWE us that info so we can determine how to best answer your questions. I try to figure out the best way to handle my 5 year old grandson when he throws his temper tantrum, so I would like to offer you the same courtesy.
The Watchdog is a McP guy, and I am a McK supporter, and this is irritating to both of us. Hurt supporters are upset because the 48% undecided means that 75% is a NOT Hurt vote at this time. Others are upset because it shows they are NOT the top dog, and a few are upset because they have spent time and money for nothing to show for it. A couple don”t care because they are delusional anyway.
I’ve got to know how you can accuse us of trying to muddy the water? If anything this should clear up things quite a bit. I guess you are living proof that some people will only believe what they want to believe. Cj, which of the OTHER polls do you want to believe, and then produce for me all the info you are DEMANDING from Watchdog.
whew. 2 weeks from today. I am tired of arguing with each other. Would rather expend the energy fighting Perriello.
Me too, Kelley. Me too.
One of Jack Nicholsons’s best move quotes was “You can’t handle the Truth!” I would love to be able to say it just like he did in that movie to so many people in VA5. It is maddening. I do hope that when it comes time to take on Pelosi-ello these same people who spend so much time and energy trying to beat up on their friends will expend at least as much effort helping toss Tommy boy out on his butt.
However, the Watchdog has accurately identified most of this crowd anyway as “Keyboard Patriots.”
Watchdog and Mark Lloyd:
I like both of your candidates and will support either.
Even if your reasons for not releasing all the information with the poll are explained, and the poll is deemed valid, no apology will be forthcoming to either of you for your irresponsible release of a poll with no documentation. You should have waited until you had all the information together so we can be an informed electorate.
CJ. If Sean Kenney is saying Vance Wilkins paid for this then he is a Liar yes.
SK is only keeping Feda in this race in the hopes that it will keep those voters away from hurt. He thinks that voters that leave her will jump to Hurt. While this makes some tactical sense I wonder if Feda knows she is being duped by this guy.
The reason I’ve ask so much about this poll and no others is because you are the ones releasing this poll- why would I come here and demand that Hurt release his questions or cross tabs? Why would I ask for something you couldn’t provide. The truth is you were probably given this poll on the condition you not reveal who paid for it- you could have said this to begin with but you did not. you could have even said no to those conditions.
Mark your use of “You can’t handle the truth” is actually quite patronizing since “You won’t give us the truth” is more accurate. Let’s start at the beginning with this statement “An outside donor not affiliated with any of the campaigns helped to commission this poll.” If that person is Vance Wilkins then that statement is untrue-you could simply deny it since you know who paid for the poll. How can you begin to know what truth I can handle if you get to dole it out a little at the time as you see fit. Lastly when Lt. Kendrick uttered the phrase that you see fit to use against me you forget that he used that vindictive to order to hide a crime. A crime that came about when the Lt. thought that “by any means necessary” was important then his oath of office.
I have stated on this very page that the poll may in fact be true, did you miss it? I have further stated that I have no problem with you endorsing McKelvey or anyone you choose. I have simply pointed out that the way you endorse gave an appearance in the press that you spoke for the entire TEA party- something that you spent some time trying to rectify- much to your credit.
If you are also calling me a keyboard patriot that is the kind of demagoguery that I once thought beneath you. I haven’t assert my service to country as a reason to believe anything I have written here- that would be wrong. I will let logic and what I believe to be true to stand testament to what I have written. Does truth best belong to those who’ve worn this nation’s uniform. I don’t believe that to be true.
The derision that your treat your detractors is quite troubling. At no time have I made light of your patriotism, how do you now feel so free to bring my love of country into question? You can write keyboard patriot on a page and feel good about it and yet we all become upset when people called us “teabaggers”.
Is it it so foreign and unnatural in this day in our nation that I demand, yes demand, from those who claim that that will “watch” over
5th district affairs that give us all the truth and trust us to make an informed decision? Why is it that you seem upset that I wanted more from these TEA party patriots then I had gotten from my government or the press? Perhaps I have been naïve.