Breaking News:
Virginia Fifth Watchdog is pleased to be the FIRST to bring you this poll conducted by a professional outside polling organization.
The poll was conducted on May 17th, by Pulse Opinion Research, LLC
An outside donor not affiliated with any of the campaigns helped to commission this poll.
500 Likely GOP Primary Voters this shakes out as follows.
| Not sure | 48% |
| Hurt | 25% |
| McKelvey | 8% |
| Boyd | 7% |
| McPadden | 5% |
| Morton | 4% |
| Ferrin | 2% |
| Verga | 1% |
We will begin releasing the details of the poll results on Wednesday.
Voters and the Campaigns have been asking for a professional poll done by an outside organization for a while now. Here it is.
I did not see you assertion that Sean Kenney is a liar before my last post.
This puts the question of who paid at an impasse that can only be solved by releasing the name of who did. I hope you ask the person(s) to do so.
I’d like to take a minute and defend Sean Kenney (someone I’ve never met, nor had contact with). From my readings of his stuff, SK has generally been a stand-up guy. Sometimes he’s wrong, but I haven’t found occasion where he’s an out-and-out liar.
Until I see proof that he’s lied, I must hold some contempt for WatchDog, since unfounded name calling is quite pitiful.
Ah yes… once again I have to sort you morons out.
1. Vance did pay for a poll in the 5th. That’s 100% true. Call Vance — find out.
2. Shaun Kenney is a kick ass guy. Supports Morton, but deep down is a McPadden type — he just won’t admit to himself he’s backed the wrong candidate. He’s supporting Feda Morton because he’s a long time friend, she won’t back out, and he won’t bail on friends. As for what he thinks, ask him. Novel thought… but ask him. If he respects you, he’ll be pretty candid. If not, he’ll pick on you until he thinks you’re something other than a fanatic or a moron.
3. A lot of people have counselled Morton to bow out. I’ve done so. Old staff has done so. Early endorsers have done so. I know for a fact Shaun has. She’s digging her heels in, half because the Hook article was crap. The other half? Well… it’s on your blog. Good job screwing it up, Kurt.
4. In fact, I think Kenney would have counselled Morton to back McPadden had it not been for this blog sandbagging him. I tried telling him otherwise, but he hates pseudonyms (mine inlcuded) with a passion and can’t buy into astroturf. Is what it is. So thanks, Kurt, for driving him away.
5. Hurt is the frontrunner. This race is OVER.
In short, I’ve known Kenney long before you came on the scene, Kurt. The guy is about as rock solid a conservative as you’re going to find in Virginia and has done a heck of a lot more for fiscal conservatives and pro-lifers than most. Ask around the Tea Party groups, old VCAP types, the guys in Richmond, the RLCVA guys in Charlottesville — he was at the event with Governor Johnson last month. He’s a friend of yours if you’d quit pissing in his Cheerios and reminding him you exist.
We still friends?
This race is not over I will fight to the end. I just hope the people of the 5th realize that a vote for Hurt is a vote for Perriello.Clark/Goode will make this a three way race. People are sick of voting for the lesser of two evils.
Conservatives should have found one candidate early and pushed hard. Wish McPadden had better support from staff (and this blog) — he could be doing very well otherwise.
Thank you, Agricola, for chiming in in SK’s defense.
That is what I am telling them too Will… a vote for Hurt means another term with Perriello. I am happy that I am not alone in my determination to NOT vote for demlite.
Listen folks, the literature that Hurt is sending out is clear as a bell as long as you read between the lines … He isn’t opposed to earmarks – just CORRUPT ones. He doesn’t want to just REPEAL the healthcare bill – he wants to REPLACE it! He is gonna stay in office until he runs for a higher office if he is elected. We will NEVER get rid of him!
Sam you are right. That’s the reason im NEVER going to support Hurt.People claim Hurt is the only candidate that can beat Perriello well I say he is the only one that can NOT beat Perriello.I love DINO’S but I hate RINO’S.
Agricola you are correct also we should have got behind one candidate early in the race and pushed hard.We can still do it. As you may know im a McPadden supporter but I agree his staff leaves alot to be desired.Im not sure of exactly what happened with Ed Robb but if he had stayed with the campaign McPadden would be alot closer to being the front runner.Lets be real here Verga,Ferrin,and Feda don’t have a snowballs chance in hell of winning the primary.By staying in the race they are only helping Hurt by spliting the vote.People lets pick a candidate to beat Hurt so we can all come together this fall and beat Perriello.
I think Mike McPadden has more grass roots support than you know, and is as conservative as any of them. I have seen the way his wife and children look at him, and I have seen that man pray.
I believe his national security clearance will assure that he survives the DNC dirt finders, and I am so proud to support the only veteran in this race.
ars,
I think your assessment is right on.
I like Mike too, and I have no doubt he can beat Perriello if we can get behind him and beat Hurt!
I have a picture in my mind I’d like to share. Picture Bob Hurt in the driver’s seat of his Govt. Motors campaign vehicle. Ok, now picture a tow truck in front of Bob Hurt’s vehicle, towing him down the road. As it goes by there is a sign on the tow-truck door, “Establishment Towing”! Oh there is Kelley pushing from behind!
Sometimes I wish I were a cartoonist!
Cardinalcrossing I think you would be a very good cartoonist.
Meanwhile, the crumpled bodies of the other candidates lie underneath the trucks tires. Because although he might need extreme help to win, he’s still crushing the competition.
Like it or not.
Now YadraN! That’s quite an imagination you have! My, where to begin? Did you push all the other candidates under the tow truck? Was Kelley helping you?
Hey, Hurt’s not my first (or even second) choice, but I’m a realist. There is no indication that he’s not currently ahead (unfortunately).
YodraN the reason Hurt is slightly ahead is because we aren’t ALL on the same page if we were Hurt would be behind.We can do this if we ALL fall in behind one candidate. Folks we can make this happen but it takes all of us.
At this stage of the Campaign, polls really don’t mean much. They never really do. I remember one Presidential Election where all the polls had been wrong. Citizens need to check the Candidates websites, their campaigns, and try to determined who would best beat TP.
IMHO Mike McPadden is the clear winner. As a Statesman he will make TP look like Walter Mondale in any debate. If you don’t remember, Ronald Reagan had Mondale for lunch and dinner, the debate wasn’t even close! There was just one! (A classic saying comes to mind, Democrats are ignorant, not stupid.)
Mike McPadden will debate key issues and put the young man in his place! You can Make it Happen on June 8th, Vote McPadden!
Cardinalcrossing im with you I like Mike McPadden but if we could ALL get behind one candidate I would support someone else.
Hey Will, thanks. I just wish i could draw!
I am chuckling to think about what some of the other candidates might ride in CJ’s cartoon, but…
McPadden is a pilot, so let’s send Mike’s plane right past that Govt. Motors campaign vehicle pulled by that Establishment tow truck… and past the bus too!
Money talks while regular folks walks (-:
RINO STEELE and CANTOR are to be congratulated on putting in the vestiges of the Byrd-Whitehead Machine.
The 48% ? They aren’t voting anyway. That’s why they are not undecided, but clueless.
Hurt is a joke…and a bad joke at that.
Let the RINOs swing and Periello stew himself in his own Soros agenda.
LOL. I know not what course others may take, but bas for me and mine in November…we’re sitting it out for the 5th
I as heartily agree with Sam (below) as I do oppose the idea of RINO “To The Manor Born” Hurt receiving our nomination.
# Sam Adams Says:
May 24th, 2010 at 10:03 pm
From my perspective, Hurt is the GOP “Golden Boy”, McP and Boyd are just more “machine” type pols, Morton, Verga, Perrin and Co. may have good intentions, but they wouldn’t be effective, even if they were elected.
For my vote, Jim McKelvey is the true “citizen politician” who will represent us well, and get out once he has made his mark. I urge you to give McKelvey a second hard look. Decide for yourself who you want to represent you. Just PLEASE make an informed decision, and VOTE!
We don’t need Jim McKelvey making his mark, we need to change back to Constitutional Principles within the House of Representatives. Mike McPadden is just the guy to represent us and find like minded, principled Members of Congress to change the establishment. Back to the Founding Fathers Principles that our Federal Government is oh so in lacking.
Think about it, 5 years ago if I told you the President was buying GM with our money would you believe me? This is a new Day and the cards are on the table, Mike McPadden has a great hand! Others need to fold.
Mike McPadden will beat TP this November, with everyone’s help on June 8th!
http://publicpolicypolling.blogspot.com/2010/05/va-5-tea-party-candidacy.html
Public Policy Polling’s blog points out that Hurt is unlikely to unify VA-5 voters against Perriello come November.
MM: I just looked at that article you cited. 2 thoughts: the numbers may be different today, so perhaps we shouldn’t jump to conclusions. Also, if anyone expects a 3d party candidate to draw more than 5%, then the rest of us will have to work that much harder to put the Republican (& I shamelessly admit I’m a Hurt supporter) in office.
no matter who wins this primary, they will start out way, way, way behind the 8 ball in terms of money & name ID. so we will have to all come together.
Does anyone think Hurt has any chance at all of bringing everyone together ? I was in the Hurt camp until I learned of his Liberal leaning votes now im not sure who I will vote for but one thing is for sure Hurt is the one candidate that can’t bring everyone together.
This is bad comedy.
Well, I’m trying to figure out the comedy part. If your talking about if not laughing you would be crying, then maybe. However, I’m sort of think horror movie myself. Or, something with a mental institution backdrop.
Mark and Bruce, you two, in my opinion, are two of the most level headed and intelligent guys in this sordid debate. I agree, this is bad comedy. What is going on?
Hurt is exactly what we don’t need. A “conservative” who will break under pressure. He voted to increase taxes rather than hold the line and demand decreased spending. He is NOT a conservative. He has voted conservatively 95%, but is that enough? Being hoodwinked 1 out of 20 times is enough to pass Obamacare… I respect Mr. Feigel’s views, but I will not support him.
I’ve been a McPadden supporter for a while. I know he has the strength to withstand fierce and vitriolic opposition. He has a warriors heart that never backs down. I’ve listened to him and, admittedly, I’ve had to do some googling after listening to him. He really seems to get to get the Constitution. As I’ve heard from others, he’s got depth of understanding that I don’t know anyone in this race can match.
McKelvey is a good man. I’ve met him and I LIKE him. He is well intentioned and honest. Most importantly, he’s got fire to spare. Unfortunately, I’ve seen him in the debates and it seems like he learned about the Constitution yesterday. In the Charlottesville debate, he was dumbfounded by simple questions about the first ten amendments! It’s not new material. He loves talking about the 5000 Year Leap. Great. McPadden recommended he read it. He’s a supporter of the FairTax, even better! Unfortunately, McPadden told him about that too. Is he gonna be calling him for advice while he’s in Washington? Furthermore, he keeps saying he’s going to “repeal” Obamacare. With what presidential approval? Is he just catering to the masses or is he that misinformed? As I understand it, Obama will be president during the entire term of this current congressional election. So does he intend to garner 66% of both houses or ratification by all the states… A good man, but unprepared and ill-informed.
Boyd is actually the most interesting candidate to me these days. Early on I wrote him off as kind of a oddball. I think he has SERIOUS presentation problems. However, reading about and from him presents a different character. I think he’s intelligent and more informed financially(my personal pet-issue) than any of the rest of the field. But could he face Perriello? Unfortunately, I think not.
The remaining three are a joke and simply stool pigeons for Hurt. If they think otherwise, their pride is only overshadowed by their ignorance.
So what’s our move? Mark, you’ve endorsed McKelvey. How do you excuse his lack of constitutional knowledge? I’ve seen you at these debates. I know you’ve seen his lack of knowledge. Is he really the man to defend our sacred document?
Bruce, you call it comedy. I call it tragedy. What’s your call? How can we unite the fifth behind a real CONSTITUTIONAL conservative and is it even worth trying at this point?
I’m as disgusted by the infighting and slander as anyone. But frankly, I’m more disgusted by the willingness to compromise. Compromise has brought us to the political climate we’re in today. The idea that anyone but Perriello is good enough is obtuse and beyond foolish. We need someone who will not only slow the tide of “progressive reform”, but push us back towards a Constitutional Republic. Damn, if hear one more thing about our “democracy” I might be done for good.
P.S.- Watchdog, invitation to comments and criticism of my words is implicate. No disrespect by not directly addressing you.
VA #5:
I can live with either Hurt or McPadden winning the primary. I know I’m not going to get somebody that agrees 100% with my stands on the issues (and if there was such a person, it’d be one hell of a scary thought… heh).
Whoever wins the primary…well, wins the primary. I won’t stomp my feet and call people names like Mr. Watchdog here, no matter what.
Hurt raised taxes. Or as some of the people here say, OMGWTFBBQ HURT IS TEH ANTICHRIST. Charlie Hawkins made the same vote. I’d like to see on of these people here try and say Charlie Hawkins was a Evil Tax Raiser.
VA#5, thanks for the kudo. I know my endorsement of Jim McK set several people’s hair on fire. I have tried to make it clear that I think Mike McP is a great candidate, and I would proudly support him, but I only get the one vote.
Jim McK is not perfect, but I suppose it came down to a couple things. Jim is coming into this thing from completely outside politics. I like that. What Jim lacks in the encyclopedic knowledge of the constitution is something that can be learned, and if need be he could hire the right guy to help with that, he could HIRE Mike McP, and I would LOVE to see that. I think an amalgamation of the Mc’s would give me the PERFECT candidate (I digress). Jim has built small businesses from nothing, and has been successful to the point that he is financially set. That is NO small accomplishment. You can NOT hire someone to teach you those skills, you learn them when you earn them. He knows how to handle money, understands how to build “private sector coalitions,” to follow projects through to completion, to listen to and learn from people, to manage organizations to reach goals, and to deal with problems as they arise. As a business man, you learn very quickly what you DON’T know, and then you “tool up” by hiring people that know more than you in those areas.
I was completely impressed by watching Jim McK interact with people. He listened to them, and made them feel comfortable. I have spent years in sales, and I learned a long time ago that to make the sale you should speak one word for every hundred words you hear. Jim does that. I think that is a skill you must have to be successful dealing with people. Mike has another style. When Mike speaks you very quickly know you should take notes. Early on they called him the professor, and he should certainly take that as a compliment. Perhaps Mike being a naval officer gives him the ability to just show up and be in charge.
Some have said that Jim McK is just spouting off “populist pie in the sky” rhetoric. Maybe he is with his promise to cut the federal budget by 50%. That is a lofty goal, indeed. Can it be done? I really doubt it. Should it be a goal? Absolutely. Should we work as hard as we can toward that lofty goal? You bet!
I am amazed at the vitriol that has come from some of the supporters of other campaigns. I know it does not come from these candidates, I have had the honor getting to know them personally. As this drags on I have really become disappointed to the point of disgust with some people. Candidates and supporters alike. Sad, sad stuff.
Once again my favorite Reagan quote is “The man that shares 80% of my beliefs is not my enemy.” I really hope that after all of this is done we can remember this little ditty.
VA #5, your words are like poetry! What a great analysis and presentation of your thoughts and perspective in your last comment. I agree 110%!
You promised us complete information today on the Pulse Opinion poll you released Monday, yet you only provide some demographic data.
You still have not told us who commissioned this poll, nor given us the sampling error, confidence level, the actual questions asked, and how they obtained the numbers to call.
You can call this whining if you want to, but in the scientific community we call it validation of methods.
Folks the thing to remember is we need to pull votes from the independents. We all love to hear what these 7 candidates have to say about conservative values. The middle of the road people need to be on board if we are to beat Terrible Tom.
If you were an independent who would you vote for?
“Terrible Tom”…good one.
Mark and Bruce, you two, in my opinion, are two of the most level headed and intelligent guys in this sordid debate. I agree, this is bad comedy. What is going on?
Hurt is exactly what we don’t need. A “conservative” who will break under pressure. He voted to increase taxes rather than hold the line and demand decreased spending. He is NOT a conservative. He has voted conservatively 95%, but is that enough? Being hoodwinked 1 out of 20 times is enough to pass Obamacare… I respect Mr. Feigel’s views, but I will not support him.
I’ve been a McPadden supporter for a while. I know he has the strength to withstand fierce and vitriolic opposition. He has a warriors heart that never backs down. I’ve listened to him and, admittedly, I’ve had to do some googling after listening to him. He really seems to get to get the Constitution. As I’ve heard from others, he’s got depth of understanding that I don’t know anyone in this race can match.
McKelvey is a good man. I’ve met him and I LIKE him. He is well intentioned and honest. Most importantly, he’s got fire to spare. Unfortunately, I’ve seen him in the debates and it seems like he learned about the Constitution yesterday. In the Charlottesville debate, he was dumbfounded by simple questions about the first ten amendments! It’s not new material. He loves talking about the 5000 Year Leap. Great. McPadden recommended he read it. He’s a supporter of the FairTax, even better! Unfortunately, McPadden told him about that too. Is he gonna be calling him for advice while he’s in Washington? Furthermore, he keeps saying he’s going to “repeal” Obamacare. With what presidential approval? Is he just catering to the masses or is he that misinformed? As I understand it, Obama will be president during the entire term of this current congressional election. So does he intend to garner 66% of both houses or ratification by all the states… A good man, but unprepared and ill-informed.
Boyd is actually the most interesting candidate to me these days. Early on I wrote him off as kind of a oddball. I think he has SERIOUS presentation problems. However, reading about and from him presents a different character. I think he’s intelligent and more informed financially(my personal pet-issue) than any of the rest of the field. But could he face Perriello? Unfortunately, I think not.
The remaining three are a joke and simply stool pigeons for Hurt. If they think otherwise, their pride is only overshadowed by their ignorance.
So what’s our move? Mark, you’ve endorsed McKelvey. How do you excuse his lack of constitutional knowledge? I’ve seen you at these debates. I know you’ve seen his lack of knowledge. Is he really the man to defend our sacred document?
Bruce, you call it comedy. I call it tragedy. What’s your call? How can we unite the fifth behind a real CONSTITUTIONAL conservative and is it even worth trying at this point?
I’m as disgusted by the infighting and slander as anyone. But frankly, I’m more disgusted by the willingness to compromise. Compromise has brought us to the political climate we’re in today. The idea that anyone but Perriello is good enough is obtuse and beyond foolish. We need someone who will not only slow the tide of “progressive reform”, but push us back towards a Constitutional Republic. Damn, if hear one more thing about our “democracy” I might be done for good.
P.S.- Watchdog, invitation to comments and criticism of my words is implicate. No disrespect by not directly addressing you.